25 July 2022 Sara Johnson
The global economy is projected to resume growth despite the risk of recession remains high in major economies due to accelerating monetary policy...
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20 July 2022 Michael Dall
Sharp declines in industrial metal prices drive MPI down
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18 July 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek
in France, regional inequities are expected to grow over the next 5 years. Will this play a role in the upcoming elections?
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18 July 2022 Olivier Beaufils Mohsen Bonakdarpour Keerti Rajan John Mothersole Frank Hoffman Daniel Yergin, Ph.D.
The goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach unless massive new copper supply comes online in a timely...
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15 July 2022 Brian Lawson
Issuance has been reduced over the last two weeks by the 4 July holiday and adverse US inflation data: despite some positive events, conditions...
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13 July 2022 Tal Dickstein
Insights from our MPI: Lumber and energy prices rise while most other commodity prices drop.
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11 July 2022 Thea Fourie
A global recession could prove more challenging for the SSA region this time around, with fewer tailwinds and buffers to avoid sluggish growth....
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05 July 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in July.
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04 July 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP declined 0.1% in May.
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01 July 2022 Thomas McCartin
Natural gas prices jump again but most other commodity prices drop.
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27 June 2022 Yating Xu Todd C. Lee Lei Yi David Li
Mainland China’s zero-Covid policy has exacted heavy tolls on the economy
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23 June 2022 Michael Dall
Sharp declines in industrial metal prices drive MPI down
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23 June 2022 Yacine Rouimi Ken Wattret
An intensification of energy and monetary policy-related headwinds would raise the likelihood of recession in Europe.
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22 June 2022 Sara Johnson
The global economic climate is shifting rapidly in June, putting forecasters on recession watch.
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16 June 2022 Brian Lawson
The European Central Bank held an unscheduled meeting on 15 June after expectations of tighter monetary policy in both the US and EU pushed peripheral...
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15 June 2022 Michael Dall
Prices increase again but markets remain uncertain per our Weekly Pricing Pulse
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14 June 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
US inflation concerns led to a further tightening of financial conditions in the week ending June 10. An interest rate hike is on the horizon....
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10 June 2022 Ken Wattret
At face value, the eurozone’s real GDP growth rates in Q1 were encouraging but a closer inspection of the expenditure data paints a much less...
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10 June 2022 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri Diego Iscaro
The proposed acceleration of the energy transition will require larger and faster investment, and the availability of funding will be key.
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10 June 2022 Petya Barzilska Laurence Allan Kevjn Lim Ken Wattret John Raines Jessica Leyland Jack Kennedy Dijedon Imeri Alyssa Grzelak
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, we are seeing increased supply chain issues and the lingering effects of China’s Covid policy.
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09 June 2022 Michael Dall
Prices increase after another eventful week on commodity markets
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07 June 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Thea Fourie Jeremy Smith Brian Lawson
CAR became the second country globally, after El Salvador, to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. A look at the operational challenges
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03 June 2022 Brian Lawson
Our latest report focuses on a selective revival in larger share sales and new sovereign issuance in the Green Bond Market.
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02 June 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in June.
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01 June 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.5% in April.
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27 May 2022 Michael Dall
Better news from mainland China on COVID-19 send commodity prices higher
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25 May 2022 Jamil Naayem
The MENA region, driven by large oil exporters, will benefit from the Russia-Ukraine war spillovers by spending additional petrodollars, thus...
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24 May 2022 Petya Barzilska Laurence Allan John Raines Jessica Leyland Dijedon Imeri
Turkey’s implicit veto threat probably signifies an intent to extract concessions from other NATO members.
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24 May 2022 Sara Johnson
We have revised our 2022 global GDP forecast down to 2.9% from 3.2%, global consumer price inflation projected to rise to 6.7% in 2022
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20 May 2022 Brian Lawson
Although a Kazakh state borrower, Poland and Romania have all issued successfully since our 5 May report, overall market dynamics are worsening....
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20 May 2022 Michael Dall
Market sentiment sours over global growth concerns - latest insights from our MPI
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18 May 2022 Ken Wattret
A major change in approach is now required, with the anchoring of inflation expectations a priority
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17 May 2022 Jordan Anderson
The prism of country risk can make a unique and valuable contribution to our understanding of the ever-growing cyber-threat environment in which...
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16 May 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Chris Suckling
Regions specialized in sectors that have been adversely impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are set to face worse economic growth outlooks...
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12 May 2022 Michael Dall
Gloomier demand outlook and higher interest rates dampened commodity prices last week
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06 May 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in May.
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06 May 2022 Brian Lawson
Reference rates and EU spreads worsened ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting but sizeable deals were well-received in both bond and equity markets....
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05 May 2022 Thomas McCartin
Market attention shifts towards lockdowns in mainland China as lower manufacturing activity suggests less demand for inputs
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05 May 2022 Lindsay Newman Deepa Kumar
Despite intermittent ceasefire talks, no clear offramp to the conflict in Ukraine has yet emerged - our researchers look at possible scenarios...
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04 May 2022 Todd C. Lee
Did the dollar’s weaponization against Russia initiate an irreversible fracturing of the global financial system?
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02 May 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.4% in March.
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28 April 2022 Michael Dall
After a brief respite, commodity prices climbed last week
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26 April 2022 Brian Lawson
US 10-year reference yields have risen 50 basis points during April – but sizeable supply continues to be absorbed successfully.
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26 April 2022 Sara Johnson Elisabeth WaelbroeckRocha, Ph.D.
World real GDP growth will likely slow to 3.2% in 2022; Supply resilience is key to avoiding a global recession
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20 April 2022 Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek
If the incumbent president loses the election, the most significant policy divergence will be a shift in foreign policy, particularly with regard...
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20 April 2022 Tal Dickstein
The prospect of a Russian coal ban in Europe prevents commodity prices from falling outright
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13 April 2022 Brian Lawson
The prospect of increased oil supply provides some relief to commodity prices
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07 April 2022 Brian Lawson
Although reference yields have risen sharply since early March, equity issuance is improving, and long-dated debt supply is proving resilient. ...
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06 April 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in April
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06 April 2022 Michael Dall
Doubts over natural gas flows from Russia heighten price volatility last week
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03 April 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP declined 0.1% in February
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30 March 2022 Brian Lawson
Key market trends in March to watch include the rise in reference rates and the resilience of supply from riskier asset classes.
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28 March 2022 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.
The current outflows of people from Ukraine represent the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.
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25 March 2022 Tal Dickstein
Our Weekly pricing pulse: prices pull back from record highs
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23 March 2022 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alexia Ash
Using a nuanced CRP to evaluate PRI coverage provides a more accurate assessment of risk
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23 March 2022 Brian Lawson
During last week, Nigeria and Turkey successfully reopened emerging market supply, while Russia sovereign default reportedly was averted for...
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22 March 2022 Sara Johnson
Russia-Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the global geopolitical landscape with impacts on economic & GDP recovery especially in US, Europe...
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17 March 2022 Vaiva Seckute
Russian-Ukrainian war exacerbates labor shortage, supply chain and transportation disruption, and global trade leading to broad-based implications...
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16 March 2022 Michael Dall
Our MPI jumped 5% as commodity prices surge on supply concerns and volatile trading conditions
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10 March 2022 Ken Wattret
The soaring of global inflation rates driven by rising energy prices and other goods is aggravated by the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine...
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09 March 2022 Michael Dall
MPI climbs to all-time high as traders scramble to secure supply
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09 March 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Peter Gardett Natznet Tesfay Davdi Li
SSA countries received insufficient financial pledges at COP26 to cover their full climate adaptation needs, but they did receive substantial...
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08 March 2022 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
A state by state look at economic growth in Mexico
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04 March 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in March
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04 March 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP was flat (0.0%) in January 2022.
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04 March 2022 Michael Dall
MPI climbs to eleven-year high as panic grips commodity markets. Energy prices were the main contributor to the MPI’s increase last week.
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24 February 2022 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Increases in CRP scores were driven by costs associated with capital transfer and expropriation risks in onshore gas and oil projects
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24 February 2022 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman
With the deal, Argentina would avoid defaulting on its IMF liabilities in 2022 but shifts the risk to beyond 2023.
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23 February 2022 Michael Dall
Commodity markets eased last week; first decline in 2022
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22 February 2022 Sara Johnson
The global economic expansion will continue at a moderating pace in 2022 and 2023.
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22 February 2022 Raj Badiani
The post-COVID-19 UK recovery faces strengthening headwinds, namely rampant inflation squeezing household budgets, persistent supply chain disruptions...
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21 February 2022 Jihane Boudiaf
Rapid declines in Sudan’s exports and port calls in the second half of 2021 were caused by disruption resulting from the protest activity and...
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17 February 2022 Brian Lawson
Three emerging market issuers including Turkey sold debt successfully this week, despite difficult conditions: Bolivia poses a pending test.
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16 February 2022 Michael Dall
Broad gains on commodity markets as buyers snap up raw materials
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10 February 2022 Michael Dall
Quieter week on commodity markets but prices continue to climb
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08 February 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in February including loan prime rates...
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08 February 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Jose Sevilla-Macip Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman
As we continue to watch global supply chain disruptions our experts take a close look at what this means for specific sectors in Latin America...
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07 February 2022 Tom Jackson Steven Frable Karl Kuykendall Fran Hagarty
Our US Regional economists provide insights on their growth expectations for 2022
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03 February 2022 Arlene Kish, M.A.
The Bank of Canada's hawkish tone confirms resolute objective to bring inflation back to 2% target.
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02 February 2022 Anna Boyd
A closer look at current practices in the field of social license, the bedrock of the S in ESG, reveals the opportunity to shift ESG from a compliance...
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02 February 2022 Thomas McCartin
Natural gas and coal join oil in showing price strength
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01 February 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in December 2021.
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01 February 2022 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the political risk shaping the world in February
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01 February 2022 Deepa Kumar
Today is the one year anniversary of the coup in Myanmar. Current expectations: fighting with civilian militias likely, political resolution...
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31 January 2022 Yasmine Ghozzi Ralf Wiegert Jihane Boudiaf
The MENA region has been increasingly affected by water-related issues. How will this increase the risks to economic development, and for violent...
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26 January 2022 Michael Dall
Since the end of November 2021, commodity markets have seen extraordinary volatility. This week oil reaches a seven-year high to send the MPI...
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24 January 2022 Sara Johnson
Worldwide inflation will likely remain near 5.0% in early 2022 before gradually easing
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24 January 2022 Ken Wattret
Eurozone house price inflation hit a record high in Q3 2021, with upward momentum picking up during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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19 January 2022 Michael Dall
Industrial metal prices spike to send the MPI higher last week.
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11 January 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk team explores key issues, trends, and developments that are likely to change the risk outlooks for banks at a regional level...
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07 January 2022 Jihane Boudiaf
Hamdok’s resignation leaves the military in de facto control of the country by force but lacking in legitimacy. What's next?
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06 January 2022 Diego Iscaro
Net purchases will be substantially lower than in 2021, but reinvestments of assets already on the ECB’s balance sheet will continue to provide...
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06 January 2022 Thomas McCartin
Natural gas prices retreat, pulling the MPI lower
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05 January 2022 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Jeremy Smith Carlos Caicedo
Latin America begins 2022 in fragile condition given the COVID-19 economic impact, a deteriorated fiscal position, weak FDI, and high inflation....
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03 January 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP declined 0.8% in November.
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03 January 2022 Alyssa Grzelak
The banking sector avoided a major crisis in 2021. Will 2022 fair as well? Risks and uncertainty remain heightened
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22 December 2021 Michael Dall
Natural gas prices surge once more, driving the MPI higher
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21 December 2021 Patrick Newport, Ph.D.
According to the Census Bureau, the estimated population of the US grew by 0.1%, the lowest rate since the nation’s founding
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21 December 2021 Jamil Naayem
The MENA region will witness healthy economic growth in the near term amid rising hydrocarbon revenues and ongoing COVID vaccination, but downside...
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20 December 2021
The supply chain crisis is one with many facets. What we're seeing is not only disruptive. It's historic—the first major disjunction in the synchronized...
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14 December 2021 Michael Dall
Watching our MPI we note that market volatility is now driving commodity prices higher
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14 December 2021 Akshat Goel
The pandemic rages on, but that won’t stop Americans from spending with gusto—holiday sales up 16.6%.
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10 December 2021 Vaiva Seckute
House price increases in Europe accelerated since end-2020 despite GDP contractions - what's the downside risk?
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08 December 2021 Michael Dall
Renewed threat from Omicron sends commodity prices down
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08 December 2021 William Farmer
Growing land-rights risks due to climate impacts and 2022 elections in Kenya leads to an increase in violence.
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03 December 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in December.
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02 December 2021 Petya Barzilska Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. Jose Sevilla-Macip Blanka Kolenikova Alex Kokcharov
Traditional drivers of irregular migration including security and conflict have an impact on everything from supply chains and labor markets...
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01 December 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 1.5% in October.
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01 December 2021 Michael Dall
Rising metal prices send commodities higher, but downside risks emerge
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30 November 2021 Brian Lawson
Capital Markets Weekly: Supply affected by Thanksgiving holiday and renewed COVID-related concerns
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24 November 2021 Michael Dall
Volatility in natural gas markets send commodity prices higher last week
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23 November 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Projects located in sub-Saharan Africa have recorded the largest increase in Country Risk Premiums (CRPs) since the third-quarter update, as...
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23 November 2021 Sara Johnson
S&P Global forecasts global real GDP will increase 5.5% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022
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22 November 2021 Evan Andrade
Strong energy exports provided some offset for automotive trade flows that saw a second consecutive month of substantial losses.
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19 November 2021 Alex Cotter
What's' happening to the US housing market? These four trends are ones to watch
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19 November 2021 Arlene Kish, M.A.
Temporary high inflation will persist as the Bank of Canada shifts to reinvestment phase which will then be followed by policy tightening in...
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17 November 2021 Michael Dall
Commodity markets remain rattled, but price correction bodes well for inflation outlook
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11 November 2021 Brian Lawson
A sizeable and broad-ranging debt calendar indicates limited fallout from the Federal Reserve’s tapering decision.
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11 November 2021 Yasmine Ghozzi
Recent pressures on Egypt’s short-term funding were largely reversed with Saudi Arabia’s announcement on 31 October that it is providing Egypt...
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10 November 2021 Michael Dall
Mainland Chinese intervention sparks a broad commodity sell-off
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09 November 2021 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri
The European Commission’s policy proposals to change the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the corollary Carbon Border Adjustment...
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09 November 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Brian Lawson
The UN’s new repo facility for African debt targets a USD30 billion size and USD11 billion regional issuance cost savings over five years.
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09 November 2021 Todd Lee, Ph.D.
The unique characteristics of the Chinese economy have further fueled the Chinese property sector’s expansion and caused it to become excessively...
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08 November 2021 Rajiv Biswas Elisabeth WaelbroeckRocha
The shortage of semiconductors has created issues all along the supply chain. Our experts explore what risks could further impact the supply...
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05 November 2021 Thea Fourie
What's driving the economy in SSA? Our Expert Thea Fourie provides some insights
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04 November 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping the world in November including climate policy, elections, and an economic forum...
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04 November 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in November including looser mortgage...
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Weekly Pricing Pulse: Lumber and freight markets at the head of the pack as commodity prices decline
03 November 2021 Tal Dickstein
Prices for eight of the ten MPI sub-components fell last week
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03 November 2021 Lilit Gevorgyan
The Central Bank of Russia surprised financial markets by a bold 75- basis point increase during its October rate-setting meeting, a move projected...
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02 November 2021 Evan Andrade
August retail sales rose 2.1% m/m with strong underlying details, but a pull-back in the September figure is expected.
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01 November 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in September.
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29 October 2021 Brian Lawson
Diverse issuers from mainland China, elsewhere in Asia and other emerging markets are issuing successfully despite Chinese property-sector stress....
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29 October 2021 Akshat Goel
Spending on Halloween candy in the US expected to reach record high of $3.1 billion in October
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28 October 2021 Michael Dall
Mainland China announces plans to tackle high coal prices bringing price relief last week
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28 October 2021 Ken Wattret
Persistent upward pressure on inflation, and inflation expectations, have increased the chance of an imminent Bank of England rate rise.
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27 October 2021 Jamil Naayem Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Andrew Birch
The Afghan political transformation will have varying economic effects on its immediate neighbors – Pakistan, Tajikistan, Iran, Turkmenistan...
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26 October 2021 Chulwoo Hong
All housing starts segments in Canada fell as urban single and multiple starts decreased 5.9% m/m and 4.0% m/m, respectively.
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21 October 2021 Sara Johnson
Latest on our Global forecast: Real GDP will increase 5.5% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022
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18 October 2021 Vaiva Seckute Sharon Fisher
Although demand currently remains strong, Central and Eastern European countries face considerable pressures with supply-chain bottlenecks related...
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14 October 2021 Brian Lawson
This week’s issuance highlight was the EU’s debut Green bond which raised a record EUR12 billion, attracting EUR135 billion of demand.
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13 October 2021 Michael Dall
Tumult in gas markets fuels global inflation fears
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12 October 2021 Ken Wattret
Soaring energy prices will fuel a further acceleration in already elevated HICP inflation but ECB policy will continue to be driven by prospects...
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08 October 2021 Alex Cotter
Fraught with supply chain issues and rising costs, what trends can we expect to see in the next 5 years?
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08 October 2021
Understanding the full pricture of risk within a sector and a county can change investment decisions - what would you have done differently if...
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07 October 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping the world in October
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06 October 2021 Michael Dall
Rising oil and natural gas prices as seen on our MPI rekindle inflation fears
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05 October 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in October.
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05 October 2021 Thea Fourie Brian Lawson Anton Casteleijn
New technology is changing the financial landscape in Africawith the development of central bank digital currencies
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05 October 2021 Anna Boyd
ESG metrics have become benchmarks for corporate credibility, meaning social license is serious business for companies whose activities impact...
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04 October 2021 Veronica Burford Carlos Cardenas Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
A look at what is going to drive civil unrest across Latin America in the coming months
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01 October 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 1.0% in August.
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01 October 2021 Brian Lawson
Belize’s debt restructuring was accepted by bondholders and is slated to be funded through marine-focused Blue Bonds with potential US support...
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29 September 2021 Michael Dall
Metal prices drop further sending the MPI down again
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24 September 2021 Brian Lawson
Both Nigeria and Egypt have completed sizeable debt sales, with little disruption from Evergrande’s debt stress.
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22 September 2021 Thomas McCartin
Iron ore and natural gas dominate commodity price moves
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22 September 2021 Brian Lawson
This early blog focuses on Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s USD6.16 billion perpetual AT1 deal, one of three Asian perpetual deals sold...
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20 September 2021 Yacine Rouimi Sam Wilkinson Keerti Rajan Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Celine Buechel
Electric vehicles (EV) transition shapes demand for EV batteries and mineral feedstocks. Find out about country risks that could impact the supply...
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16 September 2021 Brian Lawson
This week’s supply included successful issuance by Indonesia, Turkey, Hungary, and Chile, alongside a heavy ESG calendar.
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15 September 2021 Thomas McCartin
Surging natural gas prices were offset by another large decline in iron ore that pulled the MPI lower for a sixth week in a row
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14 September 2021 John Raines, Ph.D.
Despite the increased divisiveness of Canada’s election campaign, as evidenced by vocal special interest groups targeting campaign stops, any...
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14 September 2021 Vaiva Seckute
Further dips in birth in the near future are likely, but accelerated declines in fertility rates are not expected in most cases. However, underperformers...
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13 September 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The largest reductions in our overall Country Risk Premiums (CRPs) – the additional rate of return require to adjust for country risk – were...
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09 September 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping the world in September
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09 September 2021 Brian Lawson
In a highly active week for debt sales, this week’s most notable developments involve the European ESG sector.
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08 September 2021 Michael Dall
Ferrous prices drop further sending the MPI down last week
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08 September 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in September
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07 September 2021 Chris Williamson
The Delta waves hits some of the major indsutries but boosts the healthcare services as well as pharmaceuticals and biotech sector according...
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02 September 2021 Jan Gerhard
Germany will hold the most competitive and open general election in decades on 26 September, with considerable uncertainty about who will follow...
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02 September 2021 Brian Lawson
Despite intensive investor focus on when the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will taper their asset purchases, market activity revived...
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01 September 2021 Tal Dickstein
Market optimism temporarily overcomes fears over the Delta variant and weaker growth
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01 September 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 0.2% in July
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01 September 2021 José Sevilla-Macip Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
Although Latin America possesses roughly 30% of the world’s freshwater resources, mismanagement, overexploitation, pollution, and climate change-related...
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31 August 2021 Ralf Wiegert
The global recovery from COVID-19 remains at risk as virus variants are spreading, prompting governments to order new lockdowns across many regions...
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27 August 2021 Lilit Gevorgyan
Ukraine's economic recovery faltered in the second quarter most likely due to the drag from net exports, and weak industrial activity
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26 August 2021 Petya Barzilska Jan Gerhard Dijedon Imeri Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek
The proposed Energy Taxation Directive points to an increasingly important role of environmental taxes in the EU.
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26 August 2021 Brian Lawson
Euro-denominated supply has revived with four negative yielding deals and three corporate hybrids this week.
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25 August 2021 Michael Dall
Fears over the Delta variant and weaker economic data spark further commodity price declines
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24 August 2021 Thea Fourie
Employment recovers in sub-Saharan Africa, but not enough to make a dent in unemployment levels
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24 August 2021 Sara Johnson
Global real GDP projected to increase 5.7% in 2021 as global economic expansion moves forward through headwinds from the Delta variant of COVID-19...
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23 August 2021 William Farmer Eva Renon
Foreign troop deployment in Mozambique likely to reduce insurgent capability, but dispersal of insurgents across Niassa, Cabo Delgado provinces...
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18 August 2021 Yasmine Ghozzi
Egypt’s president calls to raise the price of government subsidized bread for the first time in decades in a speech, on 3 August, and hinted...
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18 August 2021 Michael Dall
Weaker demand signals weigh on commodities, sending prices lower
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16 August 2021 Brian Lawson
Following strong US employment data for July, almost fifty issuers sold debt in just two days
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11 August 2021 Michael Dall
Ferrous prices record third largest weekly drop on record sending the MPI sharply down
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10 August 2021 Deepa Kumar Asad Ali
Taliban’s escalating military offensive in Afghanistan unlikely to represent a broader shift in intent to take control the militarily
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10 August 2021 Metin Epozdemir
Reverse stress testing encourages institutions to explore the fault lines in their business models and vulnerabilities in their risk exposures....
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04 August 2021 Michael Dall
Soaring natural gas prices and an oil rebound send commodities higher
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03 August 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping country risk in August
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03 August 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in August.
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02 August 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP essentially unchanged in June.
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29 July 2021 Kari Pries, Ph.D. José Sevilla-Macip
The 150D federal motorway from Mexico City via Puebla and Veracruz states to the Port of Veracruz is one of the most important routes for road...
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29 July 2021 Ludovico Carlino Jack A. Kennedy
Following the suspension of parliament, Tunisia's Saied stated that he would govern with a new prime minister. Our risk analysts assess the situation....
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28 July 2021 Michael Dall
Chinese government action continues to impact industrial metal markets sending prices lower
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27 July 2021 Brian Lawson
This week’s highlights include sovereign debt sales by Benin, Chile and Indonesia, with Rwanda pending, but the key flow probably has been the...
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26 July 2021 Sara Johnson
We have downwardly revises global GDP growth forecast to 5.8% in 2021; Global economic growth depends increasingly on COVID-19 vaccination progress...
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23 July 2021 Hannah Cotillon
Insights on the 2020 Olympic games in light of the global pandemic
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22 July 2021 Bree Neff Anton Alifandi
Indonesia’s surging COVID-19 cases likely to disrupt the manufacturing supply chain, increase risk of localized protests
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21 July 2021 Tal Dickstein
Higher input costs are being felt in chemicals once again while rubber prices continue to decline
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20 July 2021
With impacts to people, infrastructure, trade, exports, and FDI, our analysts assess the unrest in South Africa
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14 July 2021 Yating Xu Todd Lee, Ph.D. Lei Yi
China's Seventh Census showed acceleration of the aging population. What does this deteriorating demographics trend portend for China’s economic...
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14 July 2021 Thomas McCartin
Higher input costs are being felt in chemicals with material prices more broadly regaining some of the ground lost since May
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13 July 2021 Alisa Strobel
Ethiopia is to finance its budget largely from domestic channels with fiscal expansion primarily targeting reconstruction needs and infrastructure...
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13 July 2021 William Farmer Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. Jack A. Kennedy Dijedon Imeri Deepa Kumar
With the Delta variant now detected in over 96 countries what are the indicators of changing risk we should watch for?
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08 July 2021 Brian Lawson
Seven emerging market sovereign deals were sold in the week to 1 July: Pakistan, Mexico Romania and Sharjah also issued successfully this week....
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07 July 2021 Michael Dall
The failure of OPEC+ to agree production increases and hot summer weather send energy prices higher last week
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07 July 2021 Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman
Though highly unlikely, our analysts created a realistic disaster scenario (RDS) around Latin America SRCC
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02 July 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in July.
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02 July 2021 Veronica Burford
Pedro Castillo had received 50.12% of the vote in Peru. Jurado Nacional de Elecciones will announce the winner once a process of review and resolution...
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02 July 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP fell 0.1% in May.
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02 July 2021 Brian Lawson
Qatar Petroleum raised USD12 billion –MENA’s largest sale since 2017 – alongside three Emerging Market sovereigns and two jumbo corporate deals. ...
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01 July 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping country risk in July
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30 June 2021 Michael Dall
Chinese government action and easing inflation fears see commodity prices drop once more
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30 June 2021 Venla Sipilä-Rosen Ken Wattret
ECB not expected to raise rates until 2025, BofE expected to raise rates in late 2023
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29 June 2021 Metin Epozdemir
Understand the implications and requirements of the Bank of England's climate resiliency stress test exercise.
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29 June 2021 Paula Diosquez-Rice Kari Pries, Ph.D. Brian Lawson Alejandro DuranCarrete
El Salvador approves cryptocurrency Bitcoin as legal tender, potentially jeopardizing IMF deal and increasing AML, corruption risks
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28 June 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. Laurence Allan, Ph.D. John Raines, Ph.D. Carlos Caicedo
What does the "historic commitment" G7 tax mean around the globe? Our analysts provide some insights
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28 June 2021 Laura Hand David Deull
As recovery pathways unfold, many have been discussing the expected switch from goods to service. But who will be doing the most spending in...
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25 June 2021 Kevjn Lim Jack A. Kennedy
With the election of Ebrahim Raisi in Iran, what does this mean for regional stability and foreign policy decisions going forward?
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24 June 2021 Thea Fourie
The slow rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine program in the sub-Saharan African (SSA) region will continue to pose a risk to tourist-dependent economies’...
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24 June 2021 Brian Lawson
Markets appear little affected by the latest FOMC meeting report showing a growing “dot plot” of members expecting rate-tightening in 2022 or...
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23 June 2021 Michael Dall
The prospect of earlier policy intervention in the USA and mainland China caused another weekly decline in commodity markets
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22 June 2021 Ronel Oberholzer Greta Butaviciute Gabrielle Ventura
Our Banking Risk Service has expanded its coverage of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), launching risk ratings for Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, and Senegal....
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21 June 2021 Sara Johnson
Global economy to surpass pre-pandemic peak in second quarter of this year, real GDP to expand 6.0% in 2021
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17 June 2021 Brian Lawson
This week’s highlights were a EUR20 billion 10-year sale by the EU and Turkey’s USD2.5 billion 5.125% five-year sukuk.
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16 June 2021 Deni Koenhemsi
The tide appears to be turning in commodity markets with more signs that the year-long rally has run its course
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15 June 2021 Raj Badiani
The easing of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus-related restrictions in many Italian regions from early May will allow strong growth...
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14 June 2021 Kevjn Lim
Though highly unlikely, our analysts created a realistic disaster scenario (RDS) around war risks in the Middle East to enable insurance companies...
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10 June 2021 Yacine Rouimi Sian Jones Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The semiconductor famine has disrupted the recovery of several industrial sectors and spotlighted the complexity and strategic importance of...
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10 June 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. Laurence Allan, Ph.D. John Raines, Ph.D.
Ahead of the G7 Leaders’ Summit, hosted by the UK 11–13 June, the finance ministers commit to concrete actions to reach an equitable solution...
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09 June 2021 Brian Lawson
This week’s issuance highlight was Oman’s strongly-received nine-year dollar sukuk sale, with Bahrain also mandating banks for issuance.
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09 June 2021 Carlos Caicedo Arthur Dhont
Anti-government protests and persistent violent robberies highly likely to pose disruption during football Copa 2021 in Brazil
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09 June 2021 Michael Dall
Nervousness about policymakers dialing back support, buyer push back, and early signs of an improving supply picture cause another weekly decline...
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07 June 2021 Petya Barzilska David Li
Key provisions of the CAI are intended to improve market access and remove operational obstacles for EU firms operating in China in sectors such...
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04 June 2021 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Angus Lam
The economic impact of the devastating second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in India will be less severe than the 2020 lockdown, but the hit to household...
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03 June 2021 Brian Lawson
Indonesia and Senegal revived sovereign emerging market supply, with Mexico’s Grupo Axo and Petrobras reopening Latin American issuance
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03 June 2021 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Concerns over inflation are overblown as rise will prove temporary in most parts of the world. Inflation outlook dependent on labor force participation...
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02 June 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in June.
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02 June 2021 Michael Dall
Fears of government action, buyer push back and faint signs of an improving supply picture cause another weekly decline in commodity markets
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01 June 2021 Veronica Retamales Burford Petya Barzilska Kevjn Lim Kari Pries, Ph.D. Jihane Boudiaf Emre Caliskan Deepa Kumar Ailsa Rosales
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping country risk in June
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01 June 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 0.1% in April.
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01 June 2021 Blanka Kolenikova
Utilizing our open source intelligence collections we assess the risk of protests and riots across Europe with a keen eye on France.
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31 May 2021 Anton Alifandi
Vietnam’s new COVID-19 outbreak and slow vaccine rollout increase likelihood of global electronic supply disruption
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28 May 2021 Blanka Kolenikova
Denmark introduces new foreign investment screening legislation, affecting critical infrastructure, defence, IT, and dual-use technology sectors...
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28 May 2021 Brian Lawson
S&P became the first rating agency to downgrade Colombia to junk levels, after its failure to implement fiscal austerity measures.
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28 May 2021 Yacine Rouimi Alisa Strobel
With a short-term recovery ahead, various factors including widening income inequality as a result from the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic...
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27 May 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.
Key take-aways from our Geostrategy pulse check event
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27 May 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The largest reductions in our overall Country Risk Premiums (CRPs) – the additional rate of return require to adjust for country risk – were...
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26 May 2021 Tal Dickstein
COVID outbreaks in Asia, inflation concerns, politics, and some push back from end-markets all weighed on commodities
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25 May 2021 Sara Johnson
Global real GDP to expand 5.7% in 2021, the strongest advance since 1973
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24 May 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Emerging markets’ dependence on volatile capital inflows to finance liquidity gaps is a vulnerability. Strict capital controls are rare, but...
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24 May 2021 Dr. Marie Lechler Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Utilizing our comparative recovery index our analysts assess the impact of COVID-19 and speed of recovery across a number of regions.
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21 May 2021 Carla Selman
Fragmented constituent convention risks delaying Chile’s new constitution; despite a strong show of opposition, major state intervention remains...
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20 May 2021 Michael Dall
The misalignment between supply and demand coupled with bullish market sentiment meant another bumper week for commodity markets
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20 May 2021 Brian Lawson
Five banks raised debt on 17 May, following volatility driven by high US inflation data releases.
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20 May 2021 Anton Alifandi
Killing of Philippine Islamist militants in Sabah affirms their presence in Malaysia, does not increase kidnap-for-ransom risk
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18 May 2021 Ken Wattret
With inflation acceleration largely due to energy prices and various transitory factors, the ECB has been more worried about rising bond yields....
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17 May 2021 Dijedon Imeri
The political, legal, and security hurdles to come for the implementation of a DGC
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13 May 2021 Brian Lawson
Germany’s latest Green bond gained record demand and priced two basis points tighter than its conventional “twin”.
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13 May 2021 Bree Neff
The Indonesian economy’s recovery is expected to be prolonged by weak consumer demand and policy options are limited
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12 May 2021 Michael Dall
Demand soars and supply remains challenged leading to another week of strong commodity price increases
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10 May 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in May
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07 May 2021 Brian Lawson
Along with Greece’s first zero coupon bond, Chile issued further ESG debt this week, alongside a successful issue by an Australian coal transportation...
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06 May 2021 Kevjn Lim
Postponed Palestinian legislative election likely to trigger protests, recriminatory action, affecting mainly Palestinian Authority assets and...
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05 May 2021 Thomas McCartin
Limited supply in a few markets continues to drive prices higher
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05 May 2021 Ludovico Carlino
LNA rhetoric against GNU indicative of new executive's likely failure to extend its mandate in eastern Libya
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03 May 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly US GDP rose 2.6% in March, more than reversing a 1.4% decline in February.
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03 May 2021 Carla Selman
Utilizing our incident data we look at the increase in civil unrest in Chile and what it means for further business interruption.
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29 April 2021 Brian Lawson
Ukraine raised USD1.25 billion this week, alongside diverse emerging market supply.
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28 April 2021 Chulwoo Hong
Canadian housing starts surged in March, registering a record high in the first quarter with significant upward revisions in the previous months...
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28 April 2021 Ken Wattret Diego Iscaro
Eurozone households’ savings reached an unprecedented level in 2020, as incomes were protected by a strong fiscal response.
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28 April 2021 Michael Dall
Supply side pressures mean another significant gain for the Material Price Index last week
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27 April 2021 Arlene Kish, M.A.
Uncertainty from the third COVID-19 wave clouds the timing of the monetary policy tightening cycle.
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26 April 2021 Sara Johnson
Global economy will achieve solid growth of 5.3% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022
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22 April 2021 Brian Lawson
Colombia sold its largest debt package to date and Republic of Georgia the cheapest bond from its region.
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21 April 2021 Michael Dall
Supply disruptions and rising transportation costs pushed our Material Price Index higher last week
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21 April 2021 Keerti Rajan Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The six-day grounding of the Ever Given highlighted the fragility of global supply chains. The grounding may have been a ‘black swan’ but supply...
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20 April 2021 Timo Klein
As leading indicators for the manufacturing sector and stock markets reach all-time highs, Germany braces for the strictest lockdown conditions...
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19 April 2021 Gabrielle Ventura
Despite impending challenges, most MENA banking sectors equipped for energy transition
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16 April 2021 Brian Lawson
Ecuador’s average bond spread fell nearly 30% on 12 April after its unexpected election of a center-right president.
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15 April 2021 Veronica Burford
With no secured majority, Peru is headed for a runoff election
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15 April 2021 Eva Renon Archbold Macheka Ana Souto
CEMAC’s economic, banking and security environments are expected to remain challenging in 2021, as the region continues to battle the impact...
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15 April 2021 Gabrielle Ventura
Year-end data for Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria show mixed results on the back of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-virus pandemic in 2020....
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14 April 2021 Michael Dall
Supply shortages across commodity markets and rising transport costs sent our Material Price Index upwards last week
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14 April 2021 Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek
French finance minister lends support to global minimum corporate tax, French taxes on companies unlikely to rise
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13 April 2021 Sara Johnson Jonathan Ablett Derek Liu
Inflation risks increase as the global economy emerges from the pandemic. We need to understand the economic implications for a baseline and...
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12 April 2021 Scott Hazelton
While much remains to be ironed out in the details, around $1.1 trillion, or nearly half the package, would accrue to the construction industry...
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09 April 2021 Brian Lawson
First quarter indicators show poor bond price performance but accompanied by strong issue volumes.
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07 April 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in April
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06 April 2021 Thomas McCartin
A small increase in the headline number covers up strong price movements in many markets.
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06 April 2021 William Farmer Dr. Marie Lechler Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Carlos Caicedo
With the sovereign risk rating downgrade of 88 countries in 2020, the risk of non-payment for contract or trade-related loans can be especially...
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06 April 2021 Kari Pries, Ph.D.
Canadian Supreme Court affirms the constitutionality of carbon pricing; sector-specific incentives facilitating clean technology uptake increasingly...
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05 April 2021 Eva Renon
Utilizing our incident data and analysis, our experts look at the security issues in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique
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01 April 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.9% in February.
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01 April 2021 Jack A. Kennedy Columb Strack
Our risk team takes a look at the security and piracy risks and possible disruptions to supply chains on shipping routes
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01 April 2021 Brian Lawson
Three potentially challenging emerging market sovereign deals were arranged successfully this week by Ghana, the Maldives, and Pakistan.
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30 March 2021 Michael Dall
Lower oil prices fed through to chemical markets last week to send our MPI lower. The Suez Canal blockage will have only a transitory impact...
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30 March 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
What are the policy options and key implications of the US treasury's proposed SDR allocations for frontier and emerging markets?
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29 March 2021 Todd Lee, Ph.D.
Our Chief Economist for China takes a look at five noteworthy elements of the 14th FYP
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29 March 2021 Wilhelm Greyling
Our experts look at longer-term supply chain impacts as the Ever Given finally moves out of the Suez Canal
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26 March 2021 Paul Bingham
The blockage of the Canal is likely to continue to significantly affect global trade and supply chains, particularly if, as is likely, the refloating...
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