26 March 2021 Brian Lawson
Turkey suffered adverse focus after another rapid change in its central bank leadership but emerging market supply proved resilient.
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25 March 2021 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Kari Pries, Ph.D. Johanna Marris Ewa Oliveira da Silva Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman
Vaccine access will be limited in Latin America by reliance on external sources
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24 March 2021 Thomas McCartin
Renewed COVID-19 containment measures in Europe have pared back expectations for oil demand, bringing both oil and chemicals prices down.
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24 March 2021 Yacine Rouimi Sharon Fisher
Household consumption in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is projected to recover in 2021, but different patterns will emerge by country, sector...
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23 March 2021 William Farmer Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Sacha Baggili Natznet Tesfay Langelihle Malimela
Economic disruption is the most acute impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across sub-Saharan Africa
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22 March 2021 Sara Johnson
Global real GDP expected to advance 5.1% in 2021, with global output hitting a new peak by Q3
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19 March 2021 Ken Wattret
While the situation in the Eurozone is different in many respects from the prior crisis in 2011-12, there are some significant vulnerabilities...
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19 March 2021 Brian Lawson
This week’s highlights include France’s second Green Bond and a 30-year sale by Greece: sentiment improved after FOMC and last week’s ECB statement....
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18 March 2021 Petya Barzilska Janet Beal Jan Gerhard Ewa Oliveira da Silva Eoin Ryan Dijedon Imeri Brendan Melck Blanka Kolenikova Bibianna Norek
The EU’s centralised approach raises supply delays but aids internal cohesion
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18 March 2021 Gabrielle Ventura
S&P Global launches Algeria's banking risk rating at Very High Risk because of related-party lending, moderate liquidity risks
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17 March 2021 Michael Dall
Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf and optimism over demand growth drive oil prices higher but calmer metals markets provide some offset
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17 March 2021 Evan Andrade
Despite re-imposed regional restrictions, Canada’s January merchandise trade balance registered a substantial surplus as exports to the US surged....
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16 March 2021 Zaineb Al Assam Sacha Baggili Mr. Ludovico Carlino Kevjn Lim Jihane Boudiaf Jack A. Kennedy Firas Modad Emre Caliskan
MENA’s post-COVID-19 recovery likely to accelerate and deepen existing economic inequalities across region
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16 March 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The key concern for eligible countries is whether the Common Framework will restrict access to borrowing in commercial markets or raise debt...
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15 March 2021 John Mothersole
Surging commodity prices and crisis in supply chains to lead to burst in goods prices this summer
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12 March 2021 Brian Lawson
Markets are remaining volatile, but several major debt and equity offerings have been well-received.
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11 March 2021 Sophie Cairns Sacha Baggili Hannah Cotillon Deepa Kumar David Li Bree Neff Asad Ali Anton Alifandi
China and India will leverage “vaccine diplomacy” as they roll out the Covid-19 vaccine
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09 March 2021 Michael Dall
Logistics issues in steel markets and longstanding shortages of microchips combined to send the MPI higher last week
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09 March 2021 Anton Alifandi
Leveraging metadata applied to hundreds of security incidents captured in the Philippines we provide a more nuanced understanding of security...
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09 March 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.
Peeling back the clinical news and announced APAs, we analyze the global operational, security and political constraints governments are likely...
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08 March 2021 Petya Barzilska Janet Beal Jan Gerhard Ewa Oliveira da Silva Eoin Ryan Dijedon Imeri Brendan Melck Blanka Kolenikova Bibianna Norek
Our Country Risk team assesses the risks and implications of the vaccine rollout in the European Union.
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05 March 2021 Jack A. Kennedy
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia likely to increase in range, targeting strategic infrastructure, entertainment, other Gulf states
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04 March 2021 Brian Lawson
Bond market demand has revived: four emerging market sovereign bond sales were sold successfully in the last week alongside Italy’s Green Bond...
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04 March 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in March
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03 March 2021 Michael Dall
The aftermath of Storm Uri in the United States causes supply chain disruptions and another week of commodity price increases
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02 March 2021 Andrew Birch
Despite concerns that a failure to raise the interest rate in February signals otherwise, monetary policy will remain defensive throughout 2021....
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01 March 2021 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 1.4% in January.
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25 February 2021 Jola Pasku
Thailand’s economy suffers huge setback from COVID-19 in 2020, weakness likely to extend into 2021.
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25 February 2021 Brian Lawson
Supply has been light this week, amidst focus on recent bond market price reversals, but Saudi Arabia achieved its first negative-yield issuance....
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24 February 2021 Arlene Kish, M.A.
Inflation pressures are gaining momentum with year-ago gasoline price jumps.
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24 February 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Our Country Risk Premium’s (CRP) reduced on average across all sectors this quarter, with the decline in potential losses being greatest in the...
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24 February 2021 Martin Roberts
Arrest of suspected Islamists in eastern Senegal indicates increasing border insecurity, intention to stage Dakar IED attacks
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24 February 2021 Zaineb al-Assam Jordan Anderson Dr. Marie Lechler Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Carla Selman Asad Ali
Civil unrest in the coming years will be driven by a range of issues, including livelihood grievances if governments struggle to steer their...
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23 February 2021 Michael Dall
A winter cold snap in the US and the return of Chinese buyers boost commodity prices
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23 February 2021 Mr. Ludovico Carlino
New Libyan executive likely to perpetuate factionalism, rather than achieve unity, remaining hostage to rival militias
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22 February 2021 Ken Wattret
The q/q growth rate for the Eurozone will jump in mid-2021 but only after a weak start to the year.
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22 February 2021 Mr. Ludovico Carlino
US withdrawing support for Saudi-led offensive operations in Yemen unlikely to improve prospects for truce
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19 February 2021 Brian Lawson
In a quieter week with the Chinese New Year and US Presidents’ Day holidays, a large Italian syndication attracted critical focus after tightening...
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16 February 2021 Michael Dall
As commodity prices rebound, is this the start of a more protracted bout of higher prices and the beginning of a new supercycle?
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16 February 2021 Bibianna Norek
The French government’s proposed climate and resilience bill would affect automotive, aviation, and mining sectors
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12 February 2021 Fran Hagarty
State tax collections fell more than 7% during the first six months of the pandemic compared to the same period in 2019, with North Dakota, Connecticut...
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10 February 2021 Michael Dall
Despite the successive declines, the MPI remains at its highest point since May 2014 and still stands 48% higher than early February 2020.
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09 February 2021 Mr. Daniel Kral, M.A.
Lowering high public sector debt-to-GDP ratios will be challenging for many European economies, exacerbated by structural impediments to future...
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05 February 2021 Brian Lawson
This week’s highlight is the announcement that debt-stressed Tunisia is planning to seek sizeable US dollar denominated issuance, although its...
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04 February 2021 Eoin Ryan Diego Iscaro
Developments related to the COVID-19 virus pandemic will continue to be a key driver of the eurozone’s economic performance in 2021.
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04 February 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in February.
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03 February 2021 John Mothersole
Commodity prices may see modest corrections by spring or summer
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02 February 2021 Michael Dall
Worries over the COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and volatility in equity markets causes commodity markets to pull back
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02 February 2021 Todd Lee, Ph.D.
Our Chief China Economist looks at the rebound of China's consumer market and what it means for economic recovery.
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01 February 2021 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP was essentially flat in December.
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01 February 2021 Bibianna Norek Ailsa Rosales
France’s president seeks to curtail Brazilian soy imports, highlighting growing reputational risks for importers of agricultural products
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27 January 2021 Brian Lawson
A record 67 special purpose acquisition company IPOs were completed by 21 January.
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27 January 2021 Ken Wattret
With the eurozone heading for a second COVID-19-driven recession, talk of reflationary pressures looks rather premature.
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27 January 2021 Michael Dall
After 10 weeks of rising prices, commodity markets dipped last week. Is it merely a blip?
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26 January 2021 Yacine Rouimi
Southeast Asian economies emerged as beneficiaries of Section 301. Our researchers look at the actual impact
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22 January 2021 Sara Johnson
Global real GDP projected to surpass late -2019 pre-pandemic peak in Q3 2021 – S&P Global January 2021 Global Economic Outlook
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22 January 2021 Thea Fourie Alisa Strobel
We assess supply-chain diversification opportunities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) under the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).
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22 January 2021 Carla Selman
A look at the risks and opportunities associated with the initiatives that could make Chile a leading participant in future hydrogen-based economic...
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21 January 2021 Brian Lawson
We see positive indicators of improving issuance conditions for emerging market borrowers
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21 January 2021 Arlene Kish, M.A.
Canadian housing starts were lower in December, however this announcement will not make a permanent dent on robust housing demand.
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20 January 2021 Michael Dall
Record LNG prices cause frantic trading in energy markets
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19 January 2021 Yacine Rouimi
Section 301 tariffs caused trade disruptions when implemented in 2017. As we pass the one-year mark of the Phase One agreement our analysts provide...
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13 January 2021 Michael Dall
First full week of trading in the new year sees commodity prices surge
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13 January 2021 Brian Lawson
Colombia, Benin, YPF and Marfrig are among emerging market borrowers arranging liability management measures to extend duration.
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12 January 2021 Raj Badiani
Narrow EU-UK trade deal still a welcome development for UK economy amid tightening of COVID-19 virus restrictions from the latter stages of 2020....
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08 January 2021 Brian Lawson
First-week issuance included record US high-grade supply alongside multiple emerging market successes.
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07 January 2021 Langelihle Malimela Eva Renon
The ongoing Islamist insurgency in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province is likely to expand territorially in 2021
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06 January 2021 Michael Dall
The pace of price growth for commodities is slowing but markets remain optimistic
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06 January 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into the regional events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in 2021
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05 January 2021 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly US GDP Index declined 0.8% in November
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30 December 2020 Thomas McCartin
The pace of price growth does cool slightly but supply disruptions remain
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28 December 2020 Yating Xu Lei Yi David Li Angus Lam
our analysts look at the impact on economy, banking sector, and state enterprises due to China's bond defaults
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24 December 2020 Thomas McCartin
Supply chain problems support another sizeable weekly gain in many material prices
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23 December 2020 Timo Klein
Sub-average manufacturing vulnerability to infection risk and a boost to German exports from East Asia’s robust post-pandemic rebound provide...
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22 December 2020 Jihane Boudiaf
JNIM militants likely to expand beyond tri-border stronghold, increasing IED and small-arms assaults against resistant communities and security...
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21 December 2020 Alyssa Grzelak
As we head into 2021, our banking risk experts explore the biggest trends and challenges the emerging market banking sector will encounter.
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18 December 2020 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D.
The withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, high inflation and mounting debt will constrain growth in the first half of 2021; while the availability of...
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18 December 2020 Jack A. Kennedy
Leveraging the metadata applied to hundreds of security incidents captured in Egypt between 2018 and mid-2020 we provide a more nuanced understanding...
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17 December 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alexia Ash
Using our country risk ratings for a more accurate and actionable forecast of future cash flows
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17 December 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s market highlights included an upsized tap by Ukraine of its 2033 US dollar issue and Tesla placing USD5 billion of equity at prevailing...
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15 December 2020 Michael Dall
Per our MPI data, markets focus on the success of initial COVID-19 vaccine rollouts to send prices soaring
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14 December 2020 Rajiv Biswas Rahul Kapoor Hannah Cotillon Bree Neff
What will decoupling hold for China and Australia? Our research team looks at the trade implications for decoupling around the globe.
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11 December 2020 Jordan Anderson
TPLF target government forces with small arms, IED’s and occasional rockets and artillery following withdrawal from Urban centres in Tigray
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10 December 2020 Brian Lawson
New highlights include an impressive tap by the Dominican Republic of its recent 2032 issue and strong responses to the DoorDash and Airbnb IPOs....
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10 December 2020 Eva Renon Alisa Strobel
Ethiopia’s real GDP is anticipated to reach a historic low in 2020 amid increased significant downside risk factors including the armed conflict...
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09 December 2020 Mr. Daniel Kral, M.A.
European economies’ historic contractions in H1 2020 were followed by large, but partial, rebounds in Q3. A relatively milder contraction is...
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08 December 2020 Michael Dall
Our MPI shows that markets were boosted by strong mainland Chinese data and supply constraints
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07 December 2020 Johanna Marris
Cargo disruption from rail blockades is likely to continue in 2021 because of rising job insecurity and ongoing environmental and labor demands....
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04 December 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s calendar continues to indicate improving risk appetite, including five successful emerging market sales on 2 December.
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03 December 2020 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in December
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03 December 2020 Mr. William May
Chinese manufacturing and vaccine optimism boost commodity prices
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02 December 2020 Raj Badiani, BSc Econ MSc Econ
Any final EU-UK trade arrangement is unlikely to replicate the frictionless trade that that currently exists between the two parties, and it...
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01 December 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly US GDP Index rose 0.7% in October
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30 November 2020 James Bohnaker
US consumers have found a way to spend money amid the chaos and retail has been a key beneficiary of a widespread shift in spending from services...
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24 November 2020 Ken Wattret
Persistent low inflation and inflation expectations, combined with a severe adverse shock, leave the eurozone comparatively vulnerable to deflation...
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23 November 2020 Deepa Kumar
How will China and India realign their external relations in light of a US and China decoupling?
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20 November 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s highlights included China issuing 5-year Euro debt at -0.15% and Saudi Aramco selling a heavily-oversubscribed USD8 billion package....
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20 November 2020 Hannah Cotillon Deepa Kumar David Li Anton Alifandi
On 15 November 15 Asian countries signed a trade agreement that will cover 2.2 billion consumers and combined GDP of USD26 trillion – nearly...
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19 November 2020 Venla Sipilä-Rosen Lilit Gevorgyan, B.A., M.A., M.Sc.
Our analysts look at what will influence the currencies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in the next few months.
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19 November 2020 Jordan Anderson Eva Renon
By January 2021, the TPLF will probably retreat to strongholds in northern Tigray, or, in a less likely scenario, retain control of territory...
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18 November 2020 Sara Johnson Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
The renewed rise in infection rates threatens growth and increases the urgency of additional stimulus
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18 November 2020 Mr. William May
Markets seize on positive news despite clear declines in vehicle and foot traffic in Europe and the US
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17 November 2020 Alisa Strobel
Private consumption is expected to decline by 4.3% in 2020 amid significant inflationary pressures and higher unemployment.
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12 November 2020
Equities, emerging market and high-yield debt have rallied sharply, with junk-bond spreads reaching record lows
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12 November 2020 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Johanna Marris Emily Crowley Alexia Ash
Is Mexico a viable option as supply chains shift due to a US and Chian decoupling?
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11 November 2020 Mr. William May
Rising COVID-19 cases hits commodity prices despite a weaker dollar
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10 November 2020 Scott Hazelton
The US home improvement products industry is proving not only recession-proof, but spending has reached all time high levels – and economics...
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09 November 2020 Ken Wattret
Given the resurgence of COVID-19 and related containment measures, a sizeable GDP contraction is on the cards in Q4 at least.
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05 November 2020 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in November.
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05 November 2020 Brian Lawson
The planned IPO of Australia’s Dalrymple Bay coal terminal facility will seek AUD1 billion+, a major test of demand for coal-related equity.
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04 November 2020 Tom Jackson
Summary of battleground state employment picture
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03 November 2020 Mr. William May
Europe re-enters lockdowns prompting questions around materials demand, employment support and the likely cost of another lockdown on effected...
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03 November 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP Index rose 1.0% in September
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02 November 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The IMF and finance ministers from the G20 made some ostensibly landmark decisions affecting the ability of developing countries to access financing...
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30 October 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s highlight is the Ant Group IPO in Shanghai and Hong Kong, priced to raise a record USD34.4 billion.
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29 October 2020 Carla Selman
A new constitution for Chile is likely to increase the role of the state in the economy, particularly in the provision of basic services.
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28 October 2020 Mr. William May
Commodities gain during a to-and-fro week for US stimulus talks
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23 October 2020 Brian Lawson
The EU gained EUR233 billion of demand, growing the stock of Social Bonds by one-third, with its EUR17 billion 10 and 20-year debut SURE deal....
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21 October 2020 Michael Dall
Buyers return after China’s Golden Week holiday
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16 October 2020 Brian Lawson
Italy achieved negative yield on a three-year Italian debt auction, alongside record lows at other maturities.
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14 October 2020 Mr. William May
Markets lack direction during China’s Golden Week holiday
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13 October 2020 Andrew Birch
Several key challenges will ensure that the recovery of the European tourism sector will lag the overall economy.
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08 October 2020 Brian Lawson
The Bahamas is planning a bond sale despite sharply-rising debt burdens
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07 October 2020 Mr. William May
After two weeks of minor declines, growing downside pressure was released in a broad-based fall
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07 October 2020
What are the possible outcomes from a US-China decoupling? Our team sets forth the possible outcomes and the key questions to ask
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05 October 2020 Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
S&P Global projects that world real GDP will decline by 4.8% in 2020, a far worse outcome than the 1.7% contraction in 2009 at the height of...
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01 October 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP Index rose 0.6% in August
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01 October 2020 Jack A. Kennedy
Kuwait succession unlikely to be disputed, with energy and investment policies remaining consistent
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30 September 2020 Mr. William May
A second consecutive weekly fall, this week more broad-based, points to more cautious buying as the global economy heads deeper into unchartered...
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24 September 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping country risk in October.
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24 September 2020 Brian Lawson
Zambia is seeking bondholder consent to miss three interest payments starting this October.
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22 September 2020 Mr. William May
Astronomic lumber prices have corrected 25%, pulling our MPI lower despite broad gains elsewhere
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18 September 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s highlight was the arrangement of successful debut ESG deals by seven borrowers, alongside further airline-sector debt and equity...
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16 September 2020 Mr. William May
Some indices roll over after strong rallies, perhaps signalling a pause in the commodities rebound
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16 September 2020 Mateusz Mynarski Dr. Marie Lechler
Our experts utilize novel data collection to track economics recovery (among other things) via high frequency signals from news articles
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15 September 2020 Keerti Rajan John Raines, Ph.D. Laurence Allan, Ph.D. Anna Boyd
What does it mean for geopolitical security when three key global players - the US, China and European Union (EU) - turn inwards to focus on...
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11 September 2020 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
While emergency financing from the IMF to cope with the direct and ancillary effects of COVID-19 are agreed to, what about additional supports...
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10 September 2020 Brian Lawson
Record Asian share sales and multiple bond issuance successes indicate that risk appetite remains strong despite US tech-sector correction.
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09 September 2020 Mr. William May
An overheating equity market corrected sharply last week but all commodities, save oil, were unaffected, marching higher
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03 September 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) must select a shortlist of candidates to replace Ricardo Azevêdo. Who will be backed and what are their policy...
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02 September 2020 Mr. William May
Markets focus on the accommodative Fed rather than growing second waves of COVID-19
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01 September 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 1.9% in July.
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01 September 2020
Germany gave more details of its Green Bond debut in September: media reports suggest this will be a 10-year benchmark for up to EUR6 billion....
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31 August 2020 Angus Lam
New banking policies at play for both Mainland China and India
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27 August 2020 Brian Lawson
How have financial markets been affected by the combination of expansionary fiscal policy and quantitative easing and divergent sectoral performance?...
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27 August 2020 Brian Lawson
Media reports claim Oman raised USD2 billion in one-year bridge financing, while five hybrid deals this week indicated a strong “duration bid”....
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26 August 2020 Mr. William May John Mothersole
Chinese stimulus, a softening US dollar and easing COVID-19 containment measures give buyers the green light to keep going
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24 August 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
While it may be a little early to fully quantify the long-term economic impact of the pandemic, S&P Global estimates that by 2030 the level of...
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21 August 2020 Brian Lawson
The S+P 500 index reached an all-time high alongside recent IPOs displaying exceptionally strong performance.
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21 August 2020 Raj Badiani Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
new Brexit uncertainties are sounding on the risk radar, namely whether the 11-month transition period is sufficient to deliver an agreement...
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20 August 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Understand the risks shaping geopolitical stability in September from elections to trade summits and beyond.
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18 August 2020 Mr. William May
Bullish Chinese data early in the week was offset by rising COVID-19 restrictions, a breakdown in US stimulus negotiations and disappointing...
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14 August 2020 Brian Lawson
US investment grade supply during 2020 has reached USD1.336 trillion, beating the prior full-year record in under eight months.
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12 August 2020 Mr. William May
Volatility returns with commodities jumping
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07 August 2020 Brian Lawson
Ecuador’s bondholders overwhelmingly accepted its debt restructuring proposals while Argentina has agreed a marginally revised deal with key...
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05 August 2020 Mr. William May
Following a pause in the commodity price rebound last week, the MPI nudged higher, but sluggish demand growth will continue to be a drag
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03 August 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 5.0% in June.
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30 July 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite seasonally-quieter conditions, a large Australia syndication and a Hong Kong bank AT1 deal have reconfirmed long-duration demand.
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30 July 2020 Thomas McCartin
The 11-week stretch of commodity price increases ends amid a diplomatic spat
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27 July 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Understand the risks shaping geopolitical stability in August from elections to debt restructuring and beyond.
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24 July 2020 Justin Valentino Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Countries/territories for which our Country Risk scores have been changed significantly over the last quarter.
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23 July 2020 Brian Lawson
Both Argentina and Ecuador are facing problems to agree restructurings with their creditors, increasing the risk of “hard defaults”.
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23 July 2020 Karl Kuykendall
US Regional Economic Outlook: Northeast to take longest to return to pre-pandemic employment levels, South faces most acute downside risk given...
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22 July 2020 Mr. William May
Encouraging Chinese data and a softer dollar lifts commodity prices for an 11th consecutive week as policymakers weigh further stimulus
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22 July 2020 Mr. Daniel Kral, M.A.
Sweden has pursued a fundamentally different strategy in responding to the COVID-19 virus compared with other Western European countries. It...
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17 July 2020 Brian Lawson
A fourth emerging market borrower is now seeking hybrid debt, amidst multiple long and ultra-long dated issuance within the asset class.
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15 July 2020 Mr. William May
A tenth consecutive weekly gain in our Materials Price Index (MPI) leaves the MPI down just 9% in 2020 as capacity closures raise materials price...
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15 July 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
Our global economics flash for July 2020. While the worst is probably behind us, the global recovery remains weak and subject to further downside...
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13 July 2020 Brian Lawson
In recent days, three emerging market banks sold debt, including an AT1 deal for Mexico’s Banorte, while China Bohai Bank raised equity.
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09 July 2020 Brian Lawson
Ecuador has agreed debt restructuring with around half its bondholders while Argentina has significantly narrowed the gap with its creditors
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08 July 2020 Mr. William May
A better than expected US jobs report and good June Purchasing Managers data offers cheer but growing COVID-19 case counts in the Americas presents...
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08 July 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 4.1% in May
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06 July 2020 Johanna Marris
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement came into force on 1 July, replacing the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.
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25 June 2020 Asad Ali
Government-military relations in Pakistan deteriorate over COVID-19, increasing likelihood of PM being replaced or ruling coalition collapsing...
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25 June 2020 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Dominican Republic election likely despite COVID-19-virus spread; tourism and transport and energy infrastructure new government key priorities...
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25 June 2020 Brian Lawson
Heavy US equity issuance, including a USD14.8 billion placement by T-Mobile US, took 2020 US share placement volumes to over USD100 billion.
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24 June 2020 Mr. William May
COVID-19 cases rose more rapidly in certain areas of the US, India and Brazil last week spooking financial markets, but commodity prices continued...
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23 June 2020 Raj Badiani, BSc Econ MSc Econ
We had anticipated that the Bank of England would expand its bond-buying scheme by GBP100 billion (USD124 billion), but it was at the lower end...
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18 June 2020 Theo Acheampong, PhD
Investigations into AfDB president’s suspected misconduct indicates growing multilateral and bilateral creditor rivalry, and likely governance...
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18 June 2020 Brian Lawson
On 15 June, New Zealand syndicated NZD7 billion of 2024 debt, doubling its prior record in April: Belarus and Honduras also successfully sold...
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17 June 2020 Raj Badiani, BSc Econ MSc Econ Jan Gerhard
UK’s plan not to prolong post-Brexit transition makes interim arrangements initially more likely than finalised EU deal
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17 June 2020 Mr. William May
Commodity prices continue to surge on improved manufacturing demand and investor interest
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16 June 2020 Brian Lawson
During the last week, two borrowers – Africa Finance Corp and Helios Towers – successfully reopened the market for sub-Saharan African debt
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16 June 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
Even with the beginnings of a recovery in place, the carnage from this pandemic and the lockdowns can only be described as horrific.
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12 June 2020 Brian Lawson
Ten European sovereign issuers successfully sold debt this week after the ECB expanded its PEPP program by EUR600 billion.
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10 June 2020 Mr. William May
Commodity prices surged higher on supply side disruptions and optimism over demand
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09 June 2020 Richard Jackson Nathalie Wlodarczyk, Ph.D. Karim El Assir Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Geopolitics in a post-pandemic world – Scenarios for 2025
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04 June 2020 Braden Muhl
Few industries have avoided harm from the impact of COVID-19 and the resulting containment measures. Who is most impacted and who will grow in...
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04 June 2020 Brian Lawson
Hungary and Deutsche Bank completed successful Green Bond debuts this week, highlighting the ongoing long-term growth of ESG funding.
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03 June 2020 Mr. William May
Markets breathe a sigh of relief that President Trump's press conference did not contain even harsher actions against China
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01 June 2020 Ken Wattret
Following April’s additional liquidity provision, June’s policy announcement is likely to center on ramping up net asset purchases via the PEPP....
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01 June 2020 Karl Kuykendall
Our May US Regional forecast shows that every state will experience significant employment and GDP declines in the near term.
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29 May 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP Index plunged 11.3% in April
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29 May 2020 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman Alejandro DuranCarrete
Argentina failed to make a USD503-million payment of delayed interest on three bonds on the expiry of their grace periods, entering a technical...
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28 May 2020 Brian Lawson
European corporate high-grade supply in 2020 is 80% ahead of 2019 levels, while US bank issuance is over 40% higher.
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27 May 2020 Mr. William May
Commodity prices record another strong week on prospects for Chinese stimulus and phased re-openings in Europe, Japan and the US
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26 May 2020 Tom Jackson
Regional surveys of manufacturing activity showed signs of improvement in May after crashing to historic lows in April.
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22 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Argentina faces technical default on 22 May, Province of Buenos Aires triggered this on 14 May, and Digicel is also facing a Moody’s default...
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20 May 2020 Mr. William May
Economies reopening and supply-side issues drive another strong gain in commodities
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19 May 2020 Alexia Ash
A “bottom-up” approach is less volatile and more nuanced than a markets-led approach and results in the potential for investment opportunities...
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18 May 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
Recovery in global economic output to pre-pandemic levels will take two to three years
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14 May 2020 Mr. William May
OPEC+ supply cuts and weaker US output lifts crude prices and the broader commodity complex
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14 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Grenada became the first IDA country to seek an agreed debt moratorium on its private-sector debt – but then met slated payments to avoid default...
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12 May 2020 Dr. Marie Lechler
COVID-19, armed conflicts and locust swarms will drive an increase in Sub-Saharan Africans facing a food crisis
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11 May 2020 Jeannine Cataldi
Construction in Americas, Middle East and Africa regions have been the hardest hit by issues related to the COVID-19 virus pandemic.
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08 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Alongside bond supply from Bahrain, Chile and a syndicated 15-year deal from Germany, this week has seen the completion of two perpetual capital...
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08 May 2020 Arlene Kish, M.A.
Canada's job market was devastated once again with a 1,993,800 nosedive in net employment, which was weaker than our expectations.
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08 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Primary equity activity has expanded including sizeable deals for Southwest Airlines, Reliance Industries and a substantial Chinese IPO.
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08 May 2020 Alexia Ash
Mining in Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Peru likely to face acute challenges in the wake of COVID-19
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06 May 2020 Mr. William May
Crude oil rises sharply, but markets are becoming nervous about a resumption in the US-China trade war
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06 May 2020 Gabrielle Ventura
The Lebanese government’s financial sector restructuring plan includes banking sector losses of at least 200% of forecast 2019 nominal GDP
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05 May 2020 Columb Strack Anton Alifandi
Growing piracy off Malay Peninsula likely to be exacerbated by economic effect of COVID-19-virus crisis
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01 May 2020 Brian Lawson
NAB has arranged an AUD3 billion underwritten share placement to offset COVID-19 impacts, setting a sector precedent for capital raising
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28 April 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP fell 5.1% in March 2020.
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24 April 2020 Brian Lawson
Italy gained record demand of over EUR110 billion for a EUR16 billion syndicated package, and Spain EUR97 billion for EUR15 billion of 10-year...
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23 April 2020 Mr. William May
Optimism remains in markets despite extensions to lockdowns
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20 April 2020 Tom Jackson
Regional surveys of manufacturing activity established new series lows in April, obliterating the previous lows set in 2009.
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17 April 2020 Kristyna Alexova Aleksandra Maguire
Findings from our EPIC report help supply chain professionals drive more informed decisions about how to best operate in unprecedented times
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16 April 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
What does recovery look like? Our economists provide their outlook
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16 April 2020 James Petretta
Analysis on the impact of COVID-19 on protest and riot risks globally
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16 April 2020 Brian Lawson
Latin American, Asian and junk-bond supply this week indicates improved bond market risk appetite, despite worsening debt sustainability
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15 April 2020 Mr. William May
Volatility falls and prices rise as markets begin to calm
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09 April 2020 Dr. Marie Lechler
Our COVID–19 Country Vulnerability Index ranks countries’ capacity to deal with new outbreaks as well as those expected in the coming weeks and...
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08 April 2020 Alyssa Grzelak
In total, across S&P Global’s 52 rated banking sectors, the outlook on our rating is Negative for 41 economies, an increase of 32 since the beginning...
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08 April 2020 Dr. Kari Pries, Ph.D. Cristina Arbelaez
Severe US recession to curtail remittances to Central American countries, worsening external balances and domestic recession risks
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08 April 2020 William May
Commodities plunged further, faster in another broad-based move lower
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06 April 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
S&P Global looks ahead to the events shaping country risk in April 2020.
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01 April 2020 Alisa Strobel
Ethiopia’s Prime Minster calls for emergency budgetary support and debt relief for African countries for which COVID-19 will pose a significant...
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01 April 2020 Thomas McCartin
Collapsing demand continues to push commodity prices lower.
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01 April 2020 Karl Kuykendall
No state will be immune from employment and GDP declines this year given the sudden and deep economic shocks associated with the necessary containment...
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30 March 2020 Brian Lawson
While investment grade borrowers are rushing in record volume to capture liquidity, emerging market borrowers rely ever more on IMF support
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30 March 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Ph.D.
Most economies won’t return to pre-pandemic levels of output for 2-3 years
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26 March 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite IMF/IBRD moves to ease official debt burdens, Ecuador has moved towards debt default: Argentina and African states also seeking relief...
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25 March 2020 William May
Manufacturing shuts down in Europe and the US as COVID-19 takes a hold
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20 March 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite large-scale fiscal and monetary intervention including major QE programs, investors are continuing the flight to cash.
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19 March 2020 William May
Energy prices tank as Western Europe begins social isolation in earnest
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18 March 2020 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Disruptions to supply chains, demand, international trade flows, and travel, along with lockdowns and collapsing stock prices, resulting from...
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16 March 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
Sunday’s aggressive rate cut could be the “final” adjustment to the federal funds rate, as there is little appetite now within the Federal Reserve...
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16 March 2020 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Saharan Africa (SSA) region is highly susceptible to ancillary effects from the COVID-19 virus outbreak
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13 March 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s market developments are dominated by the breakdown of OPEC production discipline and the global expansion of COVID-19.
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13 March 2020 Shane Norton Scott Hazelton
S&P Global study shows US off highway equipment industry directly supports 480,000 jobs and 2.8 million total jobs, with 35 states at more than...
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11 March 2020 William May
Commodities rose slightly last week as the US Federal Reserve cut rates to offset the effects of the spreading COVID-19 outbreak
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11 March 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ken Wattret Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Ph.D. Chris Williamson
Expect a sharp reduction in near-term growth, followed by a slow recovery
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06 March 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite a mid-week rush of corporate bond supply, S&P Global views COVID-19 to have lasting and sizeable adverse potential market impacts
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04 March 2020 William May
Intensifying fears of the global impact of COVID-19 sparked a major sell-off in markets, which hit commodity prices once again last week
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03 March 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
Analysis from our Senior Economist Ken Matheny on today’s Federal Reserve rate cut
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03 March 2020
We recorded 78% more public mass shootings in 2019 than the preceding five-year average.
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27 February 2020 Gabrielle Ventura
On the precipice of crisis: What’s next for the Lebanese banking sector?
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26 February 2020 William May
Materials prices increase for second consecutive week; freight remains a weak spot.
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14 February 2020 Brian Lawson
Record Italy syndication and multiple hybrid deals highlight “risk-on” investor appetite.
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13 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas
2020 economic outlook for Malaysia clouded by coronavirus economic impact
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13 February 2020 Ludovico Carlino Firas Modad
Yemen-based Houthi movement has mounted 462 attacks against targets inside Saudi territory since 2015
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12 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas
The Asia-Pacific commercial aviation industry is being hit by a massive economic shockwave from the escalating novel coronavirus crisis sweeping...
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12 February 2020 William May
Chinese travel restrictions are disrupting manufacturing, driving expectations of a demand shock
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12 February 2020
Djibouti's weakening fiscal position indicates tax demands targeting logistics and telecoms, cancellation of European renewable energy contracts...
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07 February 2020 Brian Lawson
An active European block-deal calendar and India’s privatization program for 2020/21
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07 February 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s debt highlights were Poland capturing five-year funding at negative yields and Ghana raising 40-year bonds
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05 February 2020 William May
The disruptive effects of the spreading coronavirus on the Chinese economy sends commodity prices down hard
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03 February 2020 Columb Strack
Islamic State activity in Iraq and Syria unaffected by Baghdadi's death, Turkish incursion, or US partial-withdrawal
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03 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas
Worries about the spread of Coronavirus leads to Shanghai Stock Exchange Index falling 8.2% by mid-morning on 3 February, with the Shenzhen Composite...
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30 January 2020 Brian Lawson
Within improving bond markets, this week’s market highlight was Greece’s 15-year syndicated sale
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30 January 2020
Concerns around the coronavirus are spreading. Our experts look at the economic and security impacts
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30 January 2020 Jack A. Kennedy
Despite government critic's protest call for anniversary of 2011 revolution, significant mobilisation in Egyptian cities unlikely
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30 January 2020 William May
Commodity markets, already slow over Lunar New Year, are being hit by worry over the impact of the coronavirus on Chinese demand
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29 January 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in December 2019.
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28 January 2020 Blanka Kolenikova
Czech president’s decision not to attend summit in China unlikely to alter foreign relations or affect investments
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24 January 2020 Ludovico Carlino
Failure by Prime Minister-designate to win confidence vote increases likelihood of new elections in Tunisia
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24 January 2020 Brian Lawson
Five sizeable emerging markets deals were sold successfully on 21 January, with Pemex particularly-successful.
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23 January 2020 Alisa Strobel
Zimbabwe has entered into a currency swap deal with China, however, the deal is unlikely to solve Zimbabwe's foreign-exchange crisis and suggests...
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23 January 2020 Rajiv Biswas
The economic consequences of the coronavirus could be extremely concerning for the Asia-Pacific region
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22 January 2020 Deepa Kumar
Disputes between India's central and state governments probably to increase given disagreement over citizenship law, taxation
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22 January 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D. Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Our examines the impact of a longer than expected pause in the production of Boeing’s 737 MAX
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22 January 2020
Parliamentary debates over labour liberalisation bill likely to fuel periodic, large-scale protests in Indonesia’s major industrial cities
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22 January 2020 William May
Commodities powered higher last week on Asian restocking demand and a clearer trade outlook
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17 January 2020 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman
Iran-US conflict to disrupt Brazil-Iran trade, increase Venezuela sanctions risks, and potentially undermine Argentina’s relationship with IMF...
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16 January 2020 William Farmer
Al-Shabaab assault on airfield indicates broadening of target set to include military installations in Kenya and Somalia
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16 January 2020 Brian Lawson
After record Euro-issuance last week, markets remain highly-active with six sovereign syndicated bond deals: Saudi Aramco grew its IPO 15%
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15 January 2020 Carlos Caicedo
Brazil’s fiscal reform likely to lose momentum in 2020 given president’s lack of engagement with Congress
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14 January 2020 John Mothersole John Anton
What will the market look like in 2020 for metals?
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13 January 2020 Steven Frable
Economic studies ascribe a range of effects (positive and negative) to higher minimum wages. We take a close look as 26 states make adjustments....
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10 January 2020 Daniel Kral
The timing and nature of the decision are highly unusual, while the reasoning is not entirely clear.
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09 January 2020 Brian Lawson
A record USD3 billion sale by Israel along with successful sovereign debt sales by Slovenia, Ireland and Portugal.
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08 January 2020 William May
European gas prices plummet on pipeline deal, before US-Iran tensions boil over at the week's end
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08 January 2020 Tom Jackson
A trend of weaker population growth overall and a decline in natural population increase has negative implications for economic growth at both...
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07 January 2020 Asad Ali
Singapore's election likely in March 2020, followed by ruling party leadership transition, but policy continuity almost certain
-
06 January 2020 Harumi Taguchi, M.A.
Stimulus package including supplemental budget likely to mitigate downside risks, boost support for Abe administration in Japan
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02 January 2020 Brian Lawson
Recent data shows Euro-denominated debt issuance at near-record levels, but IPO deal numbers fell roughly one-fifth in 2019.
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02 January 2020 Langelihle Malimela Ege Seckin Deepa Kumar Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
How will several political developments in selected emerging markets impact on capital flows such as private investment, bank lending, and trade....
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02 January 2020 William May
The six-week rally slowed last week as markets wait for direction in 2020
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31 December 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in November
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27 December 2019 Kari Pries, Ph.D.
Transport networks, small and medium-sized businesses in Guatemala face extortion demands from expanding range of criminal actors
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24 December 2019 William May
Less uncertainty on trade supports rebounding commodity prices
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24 December 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Kenyan MSMEs to benefit from reduced taxation in 2020 but capital constraints to limit private-sector performance
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23 December 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Ethiopia to finalize foreign investment framework for aviation, energy, and telecommunications, but banking excluded
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20 December 2019 David Li
Large-scale but peaceful protests likely in 2020 across Thailand because of opposition-candidate disqualification and economic slowdown
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19 December 2019 Petya Barzilska John Raines, Ph.D. David Li Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
As the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Appellate Body (AB) ceases to function, around 88 trade disputes are very likely to remain unresolved....
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18 December 2019 William May
The US-China 'phase one’ trade deal' reduces tensions and improves the mood in markets
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17 December 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
What's coming in 2020? Global growth will expand at a rate of 2.5 percent in 2020 before edging up to 2.7% in 2021 and 2022.
-
11 December 2019 William May
More positive data points help to propel prices to a third week of gains
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05 December 2019 Brian Lawson
In the first week after Thanksgiving, two borrowers raised perpetual debt and several others obtained longer-dated liabilities.
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