09 November 2018 Carla Selman
IMF 'safeguard' unlikely to reduce Argentina's protest and strike risks; cargo and transport disruption, property damage likely
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09 November 2018 Brian Lawson
Mozambique progresses debt restructuring by agreeing to share gas revenues with creditors; gas production remains key to debt sustainability....
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08 November 2018 William May
Mixed messages on trade and lackluster data on global manufacturing activity continued to push commodity prices lower
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07 November 2018 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Angus Lam
Parliamentary elections in 2019 encourage government interference with RBI; policy reversals to increase India's external vulnerabilities.
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07 November 2018 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. John Raines, Ph.D.
New US Congress to result in policy gridlock and executive action on tariffs, sanctions, and deregulation.
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02 November 2018 Brian Lawson
Significant privatizations represent an important indicator of market resilience, while having major impacts for the vendor countries.
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02 November 2018 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Asad Ali
Pakistan’s new government of Imran Khan reluctantly returns to the IMF after other efforts to ease its external financial pressures fail
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01 November 2018 Emily Crowley
The wage outlook for unskilled construction labor for each US geographic region
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01 November 2018 Ken Wattret
Why the euro has risen so much on a trade-weighted basis and why it matters
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01 November 2018 Asad Ali
Sri Lankan PM's removal triggers constitutional crisis; early parliamentary elections likely and protest risks increasing in Colombo.
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01 November 2018 William May
Markets tumble further despite attempts by Chinese policy makers to lift the mood
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31 October 2018 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Brian Lawson Angus Lam
our initial assessment of the enactment of Section 7 of the RBI Act and the likely policy implications
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30 October 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Brazil elects far-right president; policy direction and economic performance require details of new cabinet, fiscal adjustments.
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29 October 2018 David Deull
Halloween candy prices will likely lurch upward this year, but candy spending is not spooked
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28 October 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in September.
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26 October 2018 Brian Lawson
Ample equity market supply, sharp price cuts and outright withdrawals leave several important equity sales facing uncertain markets.
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25 October 2018 William May
Geopolitical issues dominate, driving significant volatility in currency and commodity prices.
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24 October 2018 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. John Raines, Ph.D.
Our analysts look at three possible election outcomes and assess the policy implications.
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24 October 2018 Raj Badiani
Our stress scenario, using our Global Link Model, indicates a domestic recession but a smaller impact on the eurozone.
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22 October 2018 Alisa Strobel
Zimbabwe revises GDP data and includes informal sector for the first time while the new Finance Minister announces ambitious economic stabilization...
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19 October 2018 Brian Lawson
While major IPO postponements indicate worsening sentiment, Turkey’s market return and Pemex’s 10-year bond sale are clearly risk-positive.
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19 October 2018 Petya Barzilska
Bulgarian prosecutors likely to continue drive for corruption and organized crime convictions, increasing business disruption, non-payment risks....
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18 October 2018 William May
US Treasury yield move prompts largest global equity sell off since January.
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18 October 2018 Carla Selman
Argentine export tax burden mitigated by currency gains, but strikes disrupting cargo and port operations likely.
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18 October 2018 Verner Ayukegba
Electoral fraud accusations by Mozambique's opposition RENAMO unlikely to lead to return to civil war.
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16 October 2018 Timo Klein
The government’s shift towards a more expansionary fiscal policy remains limited in scope and overly focused on public consumption rather than...
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16 October 2018 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Ukraine, South Africa, Indonesia and India among key emerging markets vulnerable to currency crisis
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15 October 2018
As we edge closer to October’s decisive monetary policy meeting, stronger than expected inflation figures may have given the hawks the upper...
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12 October 2018 Langelihle Malimela
South African finance minister's replacement unlikely to change economic impact of pending budget or ratings downgrade risk.
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12 October 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Far-right candidate well-placed to win Brazil's presidential election in second round; support for austerity likely.
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11 October 2018 Thea Fourie Langelihle Malimela Joyce Silungwe Brian Lawson
A 30-minute expert commentary on the current political and economic landscape and the potential near-term implications for South Africa.
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11 October 2018 William May
Slower economic growth and rising bond yields suggest upcoming turbulence for commodity markets.
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11 October 2018 Jack A. Kennedy
Stalled Palestinian reconciliation increases likelihood of anti-Israel protests, elevating conflict risk after rocket and arson attacks.
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05 October 2018 William May
Uncertainty in oil markets pushed oil and chemicals up as the world awaits OPEC’s reaction to Iranian sanctions.
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04 October 2018 Jihane Boudiaf
Probable US Special Operations Forces' partial drawdowns likely to reignite jihadist attacks against sub-Saharan African security forces.
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03 October 2018 Deepa Kumar
Maldivian president-elect likely to release jailed opposition leaders and judges, balance India-China interests following transfer of power.
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27 September 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP was essentially flat in August.
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27 September 2018 William May
Markets shrug off trade concerns but post-Florence fervor retreats drawing down the MPI.
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27 September 2018 Ama Egyaba Baidu Forson
Kenya's government has decided to manage its economy without access to nearly USD1 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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25 September 2018 Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
Spanish state-owned rail operator set to lose monopoly on domestic train services, signaling probability of labor strikes
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24 September 2018 Arthur Dhont
Heightened risk of homicide and property damage to affect mining in Colombia's Antioquia in one-year outlook.
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24 September 2018 Vaiva Seckute
Weak investments and rising imbalances might lead to a sudden stop to consumption driven boom as external risks are piling up.
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24 September 2018 Joyce Silungwe Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Ama Baidu-Forson
Kenya's revised tax measures indicate revenue shortfalls delaying infrastructure development; repeal of loan interest-rate cap unlikely.
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21 September 2018 Andrew Birch
The interest rate increase was welcome, but widespread reforms are needed to return the Turkish lira and markets to stability.
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20 September 2018 William May
Trade rumblings, weak Chinese FAI and Hurricane Florence hit the MPI.
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20 September 2018 David Li
Thailand's 2019 election unlikely to alter military influence, civilian government likely to promote infrastructure spending, tax collection....
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19 September 2018
Increased dovishness at the Riksbank has led to high FX volatility; as fears mount that the first rate hike will be delayed in 2019
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17 September 2018 Venla Sipilä-Rosen
Monetary reform progress and structural strengthening of the current account help increasing exchange rate and inflation risks.
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14 September 2018 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Langelihle Malimela
Zimbabwean Cabinet reshuffle, purge of ruling party gatekeepers indicate economic reforms, international re-engagement are key government priorities....
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14 September 2018 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.
Correct forecast on Ethiopia leadership challenge.
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13 September 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Support for Brazil's far-right candidate increases slightly after stabbing; presidential run-off likely to involve two anti-establishment candidates....
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13 September 2018 William May
Threat of a further slew of tariffs on Chinese imports, weighs on MPI
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12 September 2018 Asad Ali
Further Taliban assaults on Afghan provincial cities likely but momentum towards peace talks also set to increase.
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12 September 2018 Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman
Argentina deepens austerity to secure IMF support and stabilize peso; doubts of government leadership undermine business confidence.
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06 September 2018 William May
For a second consecutive week, oil drives gains in an otherwise directionless week
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06 September 2018 Dijedon Imeri
Swedish general election to produce weak minority government, complicating policy-making and posing risk of currency sell-off.
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05 September 2018 Blanka Kolenikova
Local elections, public protests to determine future of Poland's judicial reforms; improved court efficiency is unlikely.
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31 August 2018 Alex Barnes
New Australian PM likely to lower energy prices; government disunity increases likelihood of opposition victory in 2019.
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30 August 2018 William May
Oil leads a broad-based jump in the MPI in a positive week for commodities
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30 August 2018 John Raines Carlos Cardenas
New trade agreement to redefine Mexico-US relationship; Canada faces retaliatory tariffs if it refuses to join.
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29 August 2018 Deepa Kumar
Presidential election nominees indicate Indonesia likely to encourage conservative Islamist policies; pro-foreign investment outlook unlikely...
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28 August 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.4% in July.
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27 August 2018 Carla Selman Brian Lawson
A from-the field webcast looking at Argentina's political and economic trajectory
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23 August 2018 Jack A. Kennedy
Israel ceasefire with Hamas reduces likelihood of war, but a lasting peace settlement for Gaza is unlikely.
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23 August 2018 Thea Fourie Joyce Silungwe
Threat of expropriation arising from South Africa's land reform legislation likely to deter investment.
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23 August 2018 William May
MPI falls as the global economy is checked by an overload of uncertainty.
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22 August 2018 Firas Modad
Iran likely to turn to Russia, Turkey, and China to offset sanctions, not risk war over Hormuz.
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16 August 2018 William May
Major components produce minor gains but MPI still directionless.
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15 August 2018 Chul Woo Hong
Amid increasing trade tension with the United States, free-trade agreements with the EU and South Korea have expanded Canadian trade.
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14 August 2018 David Deull
E-commerce transforms the practice, timing, and technology of B2B and B2C markets
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13 August 2018 Camille Chavrier
Latvian banking sector likely will undergo significant financial, structural, and regulatory changes in the near-to-medium term.
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13 August 2018 William May
Freight, ferrous and rubber prop up MPI in a stagnant commodity market
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03 August 2018 Raj Badiani Dijedon Imeri
The reform process in Italy is likely to remain slow, and will be further delayed by recent political events.
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02 August 2018 William May
Despite macro data pointing to softer pricing, the MPI jumps w/w.
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02 August 2018 Verner Ayukegba
South Sudan's prolonged negotiations highlight unlikelihood of comprehensive peace deal, but oil production agreement likely.
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01 August 2018 Bryan Plamondon
The economy emerged from recession in Q1 and is expected to further strengthen
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27 July 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.2% in June.
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27 July 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Cuba to expand hotel capacity in partnership with French and Spanish investors despite tightening US restrictions
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26 July 2018 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.
Correct forecast on Yemen civil conflict escalation.
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26 July 2018 Cole Hassay
Recent data from China and the Eurozone and currency weakness vs. USD has negatively impacted the MPI.
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26 July 2018 James Bohnaker
The back-to-school retail shopping season is looking a touch better than last year, earning an expected grade of B+.
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25 July 2018 Yacine Rouimi Sharon Fisher
Western European wages and productivity growth has lagged that in Emerging Europe. Is the Phillips curve still valid?
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25 July 2018 Jihane Boudiaf
Mixed signals on incumbent’s candidacy in Algeria’s 2019 presidential election indicate government attempt to mitigate unrest risk.
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24 July 2018 David Li
Business environment to further deteriorate for US companies in China as White House announces additional tariffs
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23 July 2018 Deepa Kumar Angus Lam
Recent banking-sector developments will strengthen and consolidate troubled state banks and allow increased foreign investment
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23 July 2018 Ken Wattret
The European Central Bank monitors “super core” inflation alongside other metrics to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance.
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20 July 2018
Despite a broadly as expected first quarter, the GNP and modified GNI indicators point to a deterioration in the domestic economy.
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20 July 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Brazil's presidential race remains wide open, outsiders likely to capitalize on unpopularity of divided pro-business center-right groups.
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19 July 2018 Chris Suckling
Anti-corruption investigations targeting Sierra Leone's former government threaten cancellation of construction, energy contracts alongside legislative...
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19 July 2018 Cole Hassay
Trade tensions and a stronger US dollar weigh on non-ferrous, oil and bulks, but chemicals lift MPI
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18 July 2018 Columb Strack
Syrian government advance towards border with occupied Golan risks provoking major Israeli military response.
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16 July 2018
Despite the expected vote to maintain rates, there is growing evidence that Sweden will raise rates
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13 July 2018 Cole Hassay
Rallying oil prices lifted the commodity complex for the second consecutive week.
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13 July 2018 Deepa Kumar David Li
Reduced India-China tariffs will expand market for Indian pharmaceuticals and broaden Indian start-ups' access to venture capital.
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13 July 2018 Arthur Dhont
Tax incentives and planned reinstatement of investment treaties likely to improve Ecuador's business environment.
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12 July 2018 James Bohnaker
The impact of the Supreme Court's ruling on e-commerce retail sales tax
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12 July 2018 Ludovico Carlino
LNA’s bid to control Libyan national institutions increases risk of renewed fighting between western and eastern militias.
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09 July 2018 Cole Hassay
Strength in oil markets checked a two-week long retreat in commodity markets.
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05 July 2018
Cambodia’s ruling party tightens grip on power.
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03 July 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Probable forced removal of Kenya's deputy president indicated by anti-corruption investigation beginning in July, increasing legislative disruption....
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29 June 2018 Jihane Boudiaf
Umbrella jihadist group likely to exploit expanded reach across Sahel to attack security installations more frequently.
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29 June 2018 Asad Ali
Taliban factionalism renders meaningful negotiations unlikely despite Eid ceasefire in Afghanistan; conflict likely to continue unabated.
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28 June 2018 Cole Hassay
Last week provided further evidence for our range-bound outlook.
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27 June 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.5% in May.
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27 June 2018 Kit Nicholl Jan Gerhard
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met on 19 June to discuss EU reform ahead of the 28–29 June European Council...
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22 June 2018 Thea Fourie
South Africa has witnessed the biggest sell-off of local bonds by foreign investors on record.
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22 June 2018 Sharon Fisher
Poland’s 2017 retirement age reduction will damage public finances, raise the risk of poverty, and hurt an already tight labor market.
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22 June 2018 Arthur Dhont
Multi-party coalition likely to support Colombian president-elect, supporting fiscal reform but tempering hostility to FARC peace accord.
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21 June 2018 Jack A. Kennedy
Egyptian cabinet reshuffle reduces coup risks for president, focuses economic policy on subsidy reduction and privatization.
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21 June 2018 Cole Hassay
We have been seeing signs that the commodity price rally was running out of steam; last week, the MPI confirmed this as commodity prices pulled...
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20 June 2018 Blanka Kolenikova
Public consultation, domestic pressure to mitigate disagreements with EU over Poland's proposed constitutional review.
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19 June 2018 Francisco Tang Bustillos
After a six-year delay, Syria released national account data showing that the economy contracted by more than 50% in 2012-2016.
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18 June 2018 Angus Lam
Fast credit growth and loan restructuring raise credit risk in Bangladesh
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18 June 2018 Jordan Anderson
Burundian president likely to stand for re-election despite "pledge to step down", increasing coup risks beyond 2018.
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15 June 2018 Carla Selman
Argentina's government introducing reforms to improve judiciary's independence, but major advances unlikely over coming year.
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15 June 2018 Theo Acheampong, PhD
Zimbabwean president's victory in July election likely to see implementation of economic transformation agenda despite opposition protests.
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14 June 2018 Andrew Birch
To rescue the lira and rebuild confidence in monetary policy, the Turkish central bank has taken several aggressive actions.
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14 June 2018 Cole Hassay
Signs are emerging that the commodity price rally is running out of steam.
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13 June 2018 Raj Badiani Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
The change in government poses little threat to 2018 growth, but political and economic headwinds could erode the 2019 outlook.
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13 June 2018 Petya Barzilska
Drivers of potential fan violence at the Russia games include past animosities and political influences
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08 June 2018
Canadian government's purchase of pipeline project to polarize electorate, increasing odds of government change at 2019 election.
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08 June 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Probable corporate tax increases after 30 June and anti-corruption probe indicate Kenya's renewed commitment to fiscal consolidation.
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07 June 2018 Cole Hassay
Commodities rise again as chemicals continue to drive the index upward.
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07 June 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Energy budget discussions indicate Tanzania will renegotiate gas-to-electricity off-take agreements and prioritize renewables development.
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04 June 2018 Nazanin Soroush Meda Al Rowas David Li
Iran likely to increasingly rely on China as major trading partner to withstand strengthening US sanctions.
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04 June 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Bargaining for control of Brazil's regulatory agencies before incumbent government's term ends likely to undermine operating environment.
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01 June 2018 Lilit Gevorgyan, B.A., M.A., M.Sc. Alex Kokcharov
Russia likely to favor domestic contractors to implement its "National Projects" investment program to 2024.
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31 May 2018 Cole Hassay
The commodity complex continues to show strength, but prices may be approaching a peak.
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31 May 2018 Martin Roberts
Provincial leadership battles and changing approach on land redistribution make early South African general election unlikely.
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30 May 2018 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
Monthly GDP Index rises 0.3% in April 2018
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25 May 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
US sanctions on Venezuela highly likely following fraud allegations in presidential election.
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25 May 2018 Rajeevee Panditharatna Ron Whitfield
Major new petrochemical supplier and plastics manufacturing plants coming to the Appalachian region – how many more will follow?
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24 May 2018 Deepa Kumar
Malaysian coalition stability likely until by-election for premiership; GST repeal signals government intent to uphold election promises.
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23 May 2018 Cole Hassay
Stronger crude oil prices are starting to move downstream.
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23 May 2018 Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
Election of Catalan president likely to lead to partial stability, but conflict will remain unresolved.
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23 May 2018 Ling-Wei Chung
Mounting inflationary pressure and strong economic momentum create room for further interest rate hikes following the May increase.
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21 May 2018 Thea Fourie
South Africa’s cyclical rebound during 2018 is expected to be soft. S&P Global expects growth of 1.5% for the year.
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21 May 2018 Ken Wattret
2017’s positive surprises have been followed by disappointments early this year. Transitory factors have contributed but are not solely to blame....
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18 May 2018 Martin Roberts
Nigerian president clear favorite to win second term in 2019, extending emphasis on rail infrastructure and agriculture.
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17 May 2018 Cole Hassay
Geopolitical tumult boosted commodity prices again last week.
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17 May 2018 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri Alex Kokcharov
Defense agreement to deepen military ties between Sweden, Finland, US, but NATO membership remains unlikely.
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16 May 2018 Ken Wattret
The normalization of monetary policy in the Eurozone is likely to be a very protracted process.
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16 May 2018 Ama Egyaba Baidu Forson
Nigeria's sovereign risk rating revised outlook to Stable on external balances and improved liquidity profile
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16 May 2018 John Raines Carlos Cardenas
NAFTA renegotiation deadline set for 17 May, but ratification to face hurdles due to Mexico-US elections.
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15 May 2018 Leslie Levesque
An economic impact assessment of Tesla’s operations in California
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11 May 2018 Vaiva Seckute
The central bank raised its main policy rate for the third time this year in an attempt to weaken price growth.
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11 May 2018 Cole Hassay
The MPI increased for the third time in four weeks.
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11 May 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Ethiopia's participation in neighboring ports likely to increase trade efficiencies and influence China's Belt and Road Initiative.
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10 May 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Venezuelan president highly likely to be re-elected despite international opposition and increasing likelihood of oil sanctions.
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09 May 2018 Paula Diosquez-Rice
The Argentine peso remains highly vulnerable despite aggressive Central Bank intervention.
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08 May 2018 Ludovico Carlino
Islamic State’s intent to disrupt elections in Iraq, Libya, and Tunisia will indicate group’s enduring capabilities.
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04 May 2018 Thea Fourie
Favorable regulatory reforms in Angola and Namibia overshadow populist policies in South Africa.
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04 May 2018
Nicaraguan government instability risks highlighted by anti-government protests unlikely to be mitigated by upcoming protest resolution talks....
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03 May 2018 Deepa Kumar David Li
Bilateral meetings indicate military de-escalation despite continued political distrust, increased Chinese private-sector investment in India...
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02 May 2018 Cole Hassay
Turbulence reigned in commodity markets last week despite relative stability in the MPI.
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02 May 2018 Nazanin Soroush
US sanctions on Iran’s strategic sectors increasingly likely in one-year outlook, aimed at internal destabilization.
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27 April 2018 Carla Selman
Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile to promote investment in lithium, but legal challenges likely to delay projects.
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27 April 2018
Despite an ‘as expected’ policy rate decision, markets reacted strongly to this week’s meeting of the Riksbank executive committee.
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27 April 2018 Deepa Kumar
Indigenization of militancy likely to escalate unrest in India's Kashmir, particularly ahead of upcoming national, state elections.
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26 April 2018 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.5% in March.
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26 April 2018 Ege Seckin
Outcome of Turkey’s presidential election depends largely on ability of discordant opposition parties to present unified candidate.
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26 April 2018 Cole Hassay
Geopolitics continue to rattle commodity markets.
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25 April 2018 Vaiva Seckute
Lithuania will ease the tax burden on labor and redesign the pension system, which should encourage private participation.
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23 April 2018 Diego Iscaro
It is likely Greece will exit its current program but there are several factors that could derail a "clean" exit.
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23 April 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Díaz-Canel taking the reins signals continuity and gradual economic reform but not democratic opening.
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20 April 2018 David Li
Thailand's National Reform Plans signals worsening operating environment for IT and social-media companies, election delays increase implementation...
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19 April 2018 Cole Hassay
Commodity prices rallied last week as geopolitical concerns rattled markets
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19 April 2018 Andrew Birch Alyssa Grzelak
The impact on the Turkish economy from US penalties for the financial sector’s role in skirting Iranian sanctions remains uncertain.
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19 April 2018 Ludovico Carlino
LNA commander’s incapacity through ill-health, if confirmed, would risk triggering new struggle for control of eastern Libya.
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18 April 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Sierra Leone's new president will probably avoid policy paralysis and improve IMF relations, but faces budgetary challenges.
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13 April 2018 Sharon Fisher
Countries in the region are reporting rapid growth in housing loans and real estate prices, despite efforts to reign in lending.
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13 April 2018 Sharon Fisher
Countries in the region are reporting rapid growth in housing loans and real estate prices, despite efforts to reign in lending.
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13 April 2018 Cole Hassay
With a potential trade war between the United States and China looming, this article examines how to determine your supply chain's risk exposure....
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13 April 2018 Cole Hassay
Softening demand from China put downward pressure on commodity prices last week.
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12 April 2018 Arthur Dhont
Next Colombian administration likely to implement targeted corporate tax reductions and reduce exceptions; fiscal stability compromise probable...
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12 April 2018 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D.
Botswana's appointment of new president likely to ensure policy continuity
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11 April 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Brazilian government progresses with privatization of state enterprises, but divestment likely to take years.
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10 April 2018 Tom Jackson
Widening of sanctions would cause pain to farmers and manufacturers.
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05 April 2018 Cole Hassay
Supply remains ample in commodity markets, while policy developments are creating uncertainty
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05 April 2018 Jan Gerhard
Dutch municipal election result reflects highly fragmented political landscape nationwide, potentially slowing down policymaking at council level....
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04 April 2018 Maria Bertram
Join us in London for a dive deep into critical topics and understand the implications for your business.
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03 April 2018 Martin Roberts
Invasions of unoccupied South African land likely to expand beyond Gauteng metropolitan districts as expropriation debate continues.
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29 March 2018 Cole Hassay
Policy developments contributed to market volatility last week
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29 March 2018 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
February rebound was seen across multiple components.
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28 March 2018 Blanka Kolenikova
Cabinet reshuffle likely to prevent early election in Slovakia in 2018; large, peaceful anti-government protests will continue.
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27 March 2018 Asad Ali
Sri Lankan PM likely to survive no-confidence motion but energy tariff and constitutional reform policies will stall.
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23 March 2018 Deepa Kumar
No-confidence motion against Indian government increases likelihood of fractured parliament and slowdown in reforms
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23 March 2018 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor success may be overshadowed by a brewing balance of payments crisis and upcoming elections.
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22 March 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Tightening foreign-exchange controls likely to force widespread industrial closures within Venezuela in 2018.
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22 March 2018 Cole Hassay
Amply capacity is keeping a lid on commodity prices
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20 March 2018 Thea Fourie
Stronger fourth-quarter growth propelled the economy to expand 1.3% overall in 2017, as the country avoided recession last year.
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19 March 2018 Arthur Dhont
New Colombian legislature likely to support market-friendly policies, support for FARC peace agreement finely balanced.
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16 March 2018 Carla Selman
Chile's new government to promote mining, energy and infrastructure investment, fragmented Congress likely to delay pro-business regulation.
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16 March 2018
Prospects for Japanese PM's re-election and constitutional amendment hindered by finance ministry adjustment of scandal-related documents.
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16 March 2018 Cole Hassay
Signs continue to point to range bound commodity price outlook.
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15 March 2018 Xu Yating
While the growth target cut was expected, it indicates that China has entered a phase of “high-quality development”.
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15 March 2018 Nazanin Soroush
Apparent increase in Iranian material support for Bahraini militants likely intended as deterrence against Saudi escalation.
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09 March 2018 Raj Badiani
Indecisive general election outcome likely to halt upward drift in Italian growth
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09 March 2018 Cole Hassay
Volatility drives a narrow retreat in commodity prices.
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08 March 2018 Chris Suckling
Djiboutian ruling party's victory in legislative elections weakens opposition and development projects face growing tax burden.
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07 March 2018 Nazanin Soroush
Despite FATF continuing its suspension of countermeasures, Iran likely to face increasing banking difficulties due to US/regional pressures.
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06 March 2018 Jan Gerhard
Budget talks risk deepening existing fault lines despite early agreement on boosting security and defence expenditure.
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01 March 2018 Jordan Anderson Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Ethiopia's ruling coalition likely to remain stable after appointing consensus replacement for outgoing PM by end-March.
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28 February 2018 David Li
Cross-strait military build-up heightens war-risk and increases likelihood of discrimination against Taiwan and US companies in China.
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28 February 2018 Jan Randolph
Risk tolerance falls in markets as volatility returns, putting pressure on commodity prices.
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27 February 2018 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in January.
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20 February 2018 Columb Strack
Inter-state competition is escalating in Syria, as the attention of foreign actors has moved away from the Islamic State to their own conflicting...
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16 February 2018 Cole Hassay
Risk tolerance falls in markets as volatility returns, putting pressure on commodity prices.
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15 February 2018 Deepa Kumar
Declining Naxalite militant attacks indicate lowering risk in India but promotion of military commander likely to prolong conflict.
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13 February 2018 Firas Modad
Likely Syrian miscalculation of Israeli commitment to "red lines" over Iranian expansionism raises war risks.
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12 February 2018 Jordan Anderson
New PM probable before renewed attempts to remove presidential term limits, but policy continuity likely.
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09 February 2018 Jack A. Kennedy
Egyptian President’s consolidation of authority over the military indicates falling government instability risk, but rising terrorism risk.
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07 February 2018 Kit Nicholl
Ability of foreign fighters to enter Europe undetected indicates heightened risk of multi-site mass-casualty attacks in 2018.
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07 February 2018 Nazanin Soroush
Oman's expatriate hiring freezes likely to be renewed and expanded as government pushes for higher local content.
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06 February 2018
Outlook for US-North Korean confrontation
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06 February 2018 Petya Barzilska Dragana Ignjatovic
While Bulgaria meets the economic conditions, institutional readiness could hinder progress.
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06 February 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Opposition to re-form under new leadership as Kenya's finalised cabinet reviews electricity off-take and onshore petroleum revenues.
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31 January 2018 John Raines Carlos Cardenas
The probability of the renegotiations extending through 2018 and beyond is high.
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29 January 2018 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
According to the Macroeconomic Advisers by S&P Global FOMC Voting Index, 2018 is slightly to the hawkish side of center on the dove-to-hawk spectrum...
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29 January 2018 Ege Seckin Kit Nicholl
Turkey-Greece-Cyprus dispute over Mediterranean hydrocarbons risks disruption to shipping routes and localised naval incidents in 2018.
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26 January 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Corruption conviction of left-wing former Brazilian president upheld, likely to end his presidential race.
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26 January 2018 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December.
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26 January 2018 Martin Roberts
Ramaphosa is making moves to prematurely end President Zuma’s term...
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25 January 2018 Carlos Cardenas Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Venezuelan government's call for presidential elections to secure its grip on power unlikely to reduce government instability.
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24 January 2018 Cole Hassay
The impact on commodity prices will be eclipsed by decelerating Chinese growth, tightening monetary policy, and lower oil prices.
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24 January 2018 Ege Seckin
Turkish intervention in Syria likely to force US to choose between NATO ally, Turkey, and the YPG.
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18 January 2018 Sara L. Johnson, CBE
Can the global economy sustain its current upward trajectory?
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18 January 2018 Nazanin Soroush
US president’s statement on Iran sanctions waivers increases risk of snapback, undermining JCPOA’s longevity.
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17 January 2018 Asad Ali
Declining militant attacks indicate lowering risk in Pakistan but rallies and religious minorities remain likely targets
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28 December 2017 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.8% in November.
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18 December 2017 Sam Teague
The latest S&P Global Price & Supply Monitor signaled little-change across global commodity markets.
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15 December 2017 Carlos Caicedo
Gang war in Brazil's Rio de Janeiro contained by deployment of military, but respite likely to be short-lived
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15 December 2017 Martin Roberts
Probable lack of a clear outcome to lead to further government instability
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14 December 2017 Nariman Behravesh
What lies ahead for 2018 and how accurate were we in 2017?
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08 December 2017 Ludovico Carlino
Growing risks to marine and aviation assets in Houthi-controlled territory as coalition-backed forces mobilise in central Yemen
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29 November 2017 Jan Randolph
The global balance of all sovereign rating actions turned positive again in the third quarter of 2017 at 41 to 30.
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28 November 2017 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
Insights from the Powell hearings this morning
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28 November 2017
According to the Monthly GDP Index, new to S&P Global customers, monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in October.
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27 November 2017 Cole Hassay
A US withdrawal from NAFTA could potentially impact domestic motor vehicle, electrical equipment, and machinery prices.
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22 November 2017
Insights from our monthly Price & Supply Monitor report
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22 November 2017 Angus Lam
Sri Lanka's banking sector has grown rapidly since 2013, with much of the grown centered on construction and mortgage lending.
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20 November 2017
Retailers are axing prices earlier, online sales are ramping up, and S&P Global's Payroll Tracker is forecasting a mega payday on December 1st....
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17 November 2017 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
A brief look at global growth from our Chief Economist
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15 November 2017 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D.
Zimbabwean army likely to negotiate transitional power transfer to ousted vice president following palace coup
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14 November 2017 Diego Moya-Ocampos
Any deal with bondholders will be severely limited by Venezuela's acutely dislocated economic condition and US sanctions.
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13 November 2017 Camille Chavrier
S&P Global has assigned a banking risk rating for Morocco during the third quarter of 2017.
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10 November 2017 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The United States lifted economic sanctions imposed against Sudan on 6 October.
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09 November 2017 Firas Modad
Lebanese PM's resignation probably driven by Saudi Arabia, reflecting intent to intensify pressure on Hizbullah
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07 November 2017 Bryan Plamondon
S&P Global has upgraded the sovereign risk ratings for Egypt during the third quarter of 2017.
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06 November 2017 Ludovico Carlino
Houthi missile fired at Riyadh indicates intent to engage targets deep in Saudi Arabia, despite escalation risk
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03 November 2017 Ege Seckin
Foiled Islamic State mall attack in Turkey reflects expansion of jihadist target set while capabilities remain moderate
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02 November 2017
Japan ruling coalition's snap election victory indicates policy progress, specifically on tax increase and constitutional amendment
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01 November 2017 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Opposition unlikely to seek to overturn the final result or initiate an effective parliamentary boycott.
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31 October 2017 John Anton
There is an unexpected shortage of graphite electrodes, a key piece of equipment for making steel.
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27 October 2017
Halloween candy prices are not looking very scary this year, and spending on candy is expected to surge like ghostbusters.
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25 October 2017 Keerti Rajan
The new PBSC line-up reflects a surprising adherence to established conventions regarding retirement age and promotion with the party.
-
25 October 2017
The 2017 Holiday retail sales outlook is looking cheerful, even as online sales take a larger slice of the pie.
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24 October 2017 Keerti Rajan
Militant commanders' killing in Philippines weakens organisation of Islamic State-linked groups in western Mindanao although strongholds remain...
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24 October 2017 Karen Campbell
Are you resilient? S&P Global's experience in 100 Resilient Cities Global Summit helps cities to craft an economically resilient path forward....
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23 October 2017 Ege Seckin
The Iraqi government's recapture of Kirkuk undermines Kurdish independence prospects.
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23 October 2017 Deni Koenhemsi
Historically volatile OSB prices are once again in an upward cycle.
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20 October 2017 Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
Despite the current political crisis, Catalonia is unlikely to secede from Spain.
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19 October 2017 Sam Teague
Insights from our Price and Supply Monitor
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19 October 2017 Arthur Dhont
Quintana Roo remains safer than other Mexican tourist hubs despite increasing levels of criminal violence.
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13 October 2017 Nazanin Soroush
US unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is far from certain
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13 October 2017 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh, and the US Macro team recognized for excellence
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12 October 2017 Cole Hassay
Tire prices are set to increase as manufacturers absorb higher raw material costs and deal with burdensome regulations.
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10 October 2017 Columb Strack
What remains of the Islamic State’s governance project will probably cease to exist by mid-2018
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10 October 2017
The intensification of incidents and increase in perceived unpredictability on both sides raise the risk of unintended escalation.
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10 October 2017 Emily Crowley
Expect wages in the Houston area to jump in the fourth quarter and continue to rise over the next twelve months.
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06 October 2017 Arthur Dhont
Rapid expansion of local referenda to bar extractive-sector activities in Colombia continues to drive legal uncertainty
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05 October 2017 Carla Selman
Robberies, theft, "motochorros" main risks in Argentine capital tourist areas; kidnapping threats higher in suburbs
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03 October 2017 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
A close look at Charles Evan's new challenge for policymakers.
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29 September 2017 Alexia Ash
Calculating accurate country risk correlations.
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27 September 2017
German manufacturing is on quite the run of late but one unintended consequence is rapidly rising costs.
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26 September 2017 Rebecca Mitchell
Is the pace sustainable?
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22 September 2017 Alex Kokcharov
Deployment of UN peacekeeping mission in Donbass unlikely in next year due to mutually exclusive Russia-Ukraine preconditions.
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20 September 2017 Deni Koenhemsi
Post-hurricane reconstruction in the US South will lift wallboard prices in 2017.
-
19 September 2017
Real US GDP will increase at a 1.7% annual rate in the third quarter
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19 September 2017 Arthur Dhont
Final peace agreement with ELN insurgency unlikely before March-May 2018 elections despite four-month ceasefire agreement.
-
14 September 2017 Karl Kuykendall
Third quarter GDP will take a hit but recovery efforts will boost growth into 2018
-
14 September 2017 Keerti Rajan
International condemnation drives reputational risk for Asian subsidiaries linked to Myanmar's Rakhine state but sanctions unlikely.
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13 September 2017 Karl Kuykendall
The short-term disruptions were massive but the state avoided a worst-case scenario
-
13 September 2017 Carla Selman
Supply chain risks include road cargo theft in the Santiago and Valparaíso areas, plus arson in Araucanía.
-
13 September 2017
According to the 2016 Income and Poverty report, real median household income increased at a statistically significant pace for the second year...
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12 September 2017
The US GDP tracking system forecasts 2.1% real GDP growth and 2.5% real consumption growth in the third quarter of 2017 (11 September 2017 update)....
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08 September 2017 Alex Kokcharov
Major border incidents unlikely but the upcoming Russia-Belarus military exercises demonstrate the extent of Russia's potential reach.
-
06 September 2017
The economic outlook seems to be pulled in multiple directions at once.
-
01 September 2017
With a breakout performance by the US economy looking unlikely, business inventories have yet to rebound after a drawdown in recent years-but...
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31 August 2017
Consumers are not in danger from overhanging debts in the way they were prior to the Great Recession.
-
30 August 2017
E-commerce retail sales take an ever-increasing share of the total retail sales pie.
-
30 August 2017 Karl Kuykendall
Southeast Texas is experiencing unprecedented flooding due to Hurricane Harvey, the unwanted guest who just wouldn't leave. The economic impacts...
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29 August 2017 Fernanda Machado
The re-writing of the country's constitution deepens the crisis.
-
29 August 2017
As of 28 August, S&P Global estimates that real US GDP will increase at an annual rate of 3.5%. The impact of Hurricane Harvey on GDP growth...
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24 August 2017 Jan Randolph
Global Sovereign Risk Ratings Three hotspots for downgrades in the second quarter: El Salvador, Qatar, and South Africa Long-extended European...
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07 December 2015 Ravi Vish
S&P Global Quarterly interviewed Ravi Vish, keynote speaker at the S&P Global Global Economics and Country Risk Conference in Washington D.C....
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29 July 2015
Interview of Chris Christopher on understanding the trends in US consumption. Interview Transcript What are the key economic factors impacting...
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28 July 2015 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Interview of Nariman Behravesh on implications of the "Great Divergence." Interview Transcript What is the outlook for the world's major ...
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14 July 2015 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch
Interview of Hanna Luchnikava on understanding India's diverse subnational economic identity. Interview Transcript Why does one need to look...
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14 July 2015 Mocuta, Simona
Interview of Simona Mocuta on Asia's free trade paradigm. Interview Transcript Do you see evidence of anti-free trade sentiment across Southeast...
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