Published July 2023
The global polyethylene (PE) industry can be characterized mainly by a wave of capacity additions in North America, the Middle East and mainland China (primarily coal-based). The shift toward lighter and cost-advantaged feedstock in North America is incentivizing production in the region. The competition in the international market has increased, adding pressure to the high-cost producers, especially in Western Europe. With the drop in oil prices in late 2014, the cost advantages enjoyed by natural gas–based producers declined but were not totally eliminated. Thus, North American capacity and production increases in the coming years will result in increased exports from the region. Mainland China is expected to benefit from local production, although its rapid demand growth will continue to depend on imported low-density polyethylene (LDPE) resins. LDPE accounted for 22% of total polyethylene demand in 2022 (LDPE and LLDPE together accounted for 56% of total polyethylene demand).
The following pie chart shows world consumption of LDPE:
Global LDPE demand is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2%-3% during 2022–27. Mainland China will continue to lead world demand for LDPE. Film and sheet applications continue be the largest end-use segment, accounting for 70% of global LDPE demand in 2027. Mainland China is short domestically, and the market for LDPE imports will continue to grow. Therefore, global trade in the next five years will be affected primarily by increased exports from North America and growing self-sufficiency in mainland China. The Middle East will continue to export large volumes during the forecast period.
For more detailed information, see the table of contents, shown below.
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