US monthly GDP index for June 2023

Monthly US GDP rose 0.5% in June on the heels of a 0.6% increase in May. The increase in June reflected positive contributions from domestic final sales and net exports; nonfarm inventory investment was little changed in June. The increase in domestic final sales was nearly fully accounted for by a robust increase in personal consumption expenditures. Monthly GDP has strong momentum heading into the third quarter. Indeed, the level of monthly GDP in June was already 2.1% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.2% GDP growth in the third quarter is a roughly flat trend in monthly GDP within the third quarter.

S&P Global Market Intelligence's index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.