US Monthly GDP Index for October 2022

Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in October following a 0.5% decline in September. The latter was revised lower by 0.4 percentage point. The increase in monthly GDP in October was more than accounted for by a solid gain in real personal consumption expenditures. Elsewhere, gains in October were recorded for nonresidential fixed investment, nonfarm inventory investment, and others, while declines were recorded for residential investment and net exports. The level of GDP in October was 1.7% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 0.2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter are moderate declines in monthly GDP in November and December.

S&P Global Market Intelligence's index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.