US Monthly GDP Index for April 2023

Monthly US GDP rose 0.4% in April following a flat reading in March that was revised down from a previously estimated 0.3% gain. The increase in April reflected positive contributions from domestic final sales (mostly personal consumption expenditures but also nonresidential fixed investment) and nonfarm inventory investment that were partially offset by a decline in net exports. The level of monthly GDP in April was 1.2% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 0.8% annualized GDP growth in the second quarter are modest declines in monthly GDP in May and June.

S&P Global Market Intelligence's index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.