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Risk Quantification: Country Risk Management

Turning qualitative country risk information into quantitative risk analysis and scores

What makes our risk scoring second to none in the business? It’s the combination of our team of analysts and our rigorous methodology allowing us to provide granular, comparative risk scores across a wide spectrum of risk categories. Our country-level risk scores cover 211 countries and territories and measure likelihood and severity on a relative scale.
Learn more about our country risk scores: Country Risk Management frequently asked questions. 
Country Risk Premium volatility Calculating the cost of country risk following COVID-19
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Our risk scores are used extensively by teams working on

Data

Cost effective

Modelling

Cost effective

Macroeconomics

Cost effective

ESG

Cost effective

Stress-testing

Cost effective

Designing and Creating Risk Scores

Our risk scores are maintained by a central team responsible for ensuring a consistent methodology across indices. All scoring is guided by clear indicator-led instruction, considered by expert analysts. proposed scores are audited by regional and thematic experts before being finalized.

Our four-step process
Data
  • Two million analyst-curated incident and indicator events
  • Blending of all-source intelligence inputs
Analysis
  • Review by dedicated specialized teams: Country, security, and terrorism experts
  • Indicator-led analysis
  • Challenge and review by senior auditors
Forecasting
  • Test hypotheses
  • Model risk through multiple geospatial input layers
  • Relate risks to special client interests
  • Geo risk metrics and monitoring
  • Scenario modelling
Quantified Coding
  • Translate qualitative forecasts into numerical scores
  • Central guidance and audit to ensure global comparability
  • Dedicated Risk Center to maintain global consistency

Turning Qualitative Information into Quantifiable Data

We specialize in the scoring, quantifying and modeling of typically qualitative information. The risk scoring system contains more than 40 unique measures of sovereign-level risk across more than 200 countries with a history of at least 10 years. Using innovative techniques and a codified approach, the risk quantification practice provides clients with economic and country risk inputs for risk modeling, pricing, valuations, and investment evaluations.

Our risk quantification team is responsible for the methodology, production and calibration of scores, models, and quantified inputs, including:

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Country Risk Scores

Detailed forward looking ratings comprised of 6 aggregate and 22 sub-aggregate risk categories to compare and contrast risks between countries and regions.
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ESG Sovereign Scores

41 discrete factors that encompass the full spectrum of risks encountered by operators, with a particular focus on the sovereign-level Social and Governance components of ESG
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Bespoke scoring

Customized risk ratings specific to your business, sector, geographies, and internal metrics
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Country Risk Premiums and Investment Model

A full spectrum of commercially relevant risks that model their impact on future cash flows by sector, and by project phase.
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Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation modeling

Improve your understanding and modeling of country and economic risk across countries and sectors
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Probabilistic and scenario modeling

Anticipate and plan for low probability but high impact developments
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Realistic Disaster Scenarios

Stress test your insurance portfolios with custom short- and medium-term qualitative based scenarios assessing low likelihood, high impact, realistic disaster scenarios
LEARN MORE

Experts

Andrew Day

During his 25 years at the company, Andrew has led consulting teams undertaking oil and gas field, pipeline and LNG facilities design, engin

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Tom De Vleesschauwer

Tom has been involved in the international automotive industry for nearly two decades and is currently responsible for both long-term market

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Research and Analysis
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Global economic outlook: December 2024
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Fishing for CHPIs: Trade flows adapt to sanctions on Russia
Blog Dec 10, 2024

Power plays: Themes for 2025
Blog Nov 25, 2024

Trade flows adapt to sanctions on Russia

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