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Reshuffling Labor Markets

The future of labor will represent a barometer of structural shifts in the wake of the COVID-19 virus pandemic. With labor-market tightness across major markets expected to persist but ease slightly where recessions take hold in 2023, we expect any slowing in wage growth to be limited.

Labor markets are experiencing a great reshuffling. Shortages in labor supply across large markets and for key sectors tied to supply chains, have prompted a tilt in negotiating power toward workers. As a result, we are seeing growing unionization and increasing strike activity. Entering 2023, we expect tight labor markets and the inflationary environment generally to initially support strong wage growth globally.

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The pivotal risk overhanging labor markets in 2023 will be the severity of expected recessions and any global spillovers, and the response of employers. We could see more labor hoarding in economies in recession, limiting the rise in unemployment as well as the degree of wage disinflation.

Beyond the long shadow cast by the unfolding economic outlook and the COVID-19 virus pandemic, automation and technological advances, demographic and participation shifts, migration, and ESG initiatives are likely to shape labor markets in the years ahead.

2023 Risk Outlook

Economic dissonance

The risk environment will continue to underpin the economic outlook for 2023. Recessions appear likely in Europe and North America, while Asia Pacific (APAC) and other emerging markets are likely to skirt the recession.

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Global security unsettled

A number of unresolved conflicts and competitions will be sources of risk in 2023, filtering into the global economic outlook.

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Energy trade-offs

With energy security back atop the agenda following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, countries will be balancing 2023 fiscal priorities against a new impetus to accelerate their energy transitions.​

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Precarious supply chains

An expected easing in supply chain disruptions in the first half of 2023 remains vulnerable to labor and resource shortages including critical technologies and critical minerals.

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