When will upstream oil and gas spending recover?

When will reduced levels of upstream oil and gas spending and activity, experienced since oil prices fell in late 2014, begin to recover?

Overall upstream spending and activity will start to strengthen during the second half of 2016 and into 2017. IHS Energy's Costs & Technology team makes quarterly updates to its bottom-up analysis of upstream project activity and its forecast of nominal capital and operating spending. Here are some key indicators on the upstream oil and gas outlook at the end of H1 2016:

• Upstream E&P spending in 2017 is expected to recover to USD403 billion, up 7% from 2016, but it will remain 43% below 2014 levels. North America will be leading gains in 2017, but spending will still remain well under half of what it was prior to the collapse in 2015-16.
• Offshore spending will continue to decline in 2017 compared with 2016, owing to generally longer lead times between project sanction and project activity/spending.

Compared with oil and gas capital expenditures, recovery for OPEX will come more quickly: operating expenditure for 2016 is expected to be USD446 billion, climbing steadily to surpass 2014 spending levels by 2019, as prices start recovering and new fields come online.

For a detailed look at oil industry spending, download the free Global Upstream Spending sample report including table of contents and appendices.

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This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.