Report: Coronavirus - Virology and Impact on the Global Agrochemical Industry
AgriFutura is a monthly report published by Phillips McDougall, providing topical insight and analysis of trends impacting the crop protection and seed industry. Our latest AgriFutura offers an overview of coronavirus and its impact to the agricultural industry.
Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was first identified during an
outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in
December 2019. Investigations into the origins of the virus, its
pathology and the way it affects humans are ongoing, and the
situation is rapidly evolving, with the virus appearing to gain
momentum. At present, the World Health Organization (WHO) has
declared the outbreak to be a public health emergency of
international concern, with the risk assessed as very high in
China, high at the regional level and high at the global level.
Epidemiology
According to an article published by IHS Markit on the 5th
February, discussing the impact of the novel Coronavirus on the
Chinese auto market, there is an estimated 1.1% decline in China's
real GDP. This estimate was based on comparisons against the SARS
epidemic of 2002-2003 which occurred in Guangdong province, a
region with a significantly greater share of the country's economy
than Hubei, ground zero for the current outbreak. Having said this,
a previous report from IHS Markit noted that Hubei is a major
transport hub in central mainland China, providing some concern
regarding logistics across the region. The number of fatalities
across the globe has also exceeded that of SARS, suggesting a
potentially greater impact on the Chinese economy despite the lower
mortality rates recorded for 2019-nCoV. In addition, the Chinese
economy has grown significantly since the early 2000s and therefore
any decline in GDP will have a greater impact on the global
situation. Phillips McDougall have explored the impact of
coronavirus on the Chinese economy, as well as estimating the
impact the outbreak will have on the global
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Our latest AgriFutura documents the timeline for coronavirus virology to date, as well as exploring the impact it may have on the agrochemical market. Access full report
This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.