Interview: Assessing the power generation fuel mix of Southeast Asia for the next decade

Over the past decade, Southeast Asia has enjoyed strong economic and power-demand growth. By the end of 2019, around 90% of the power generated in the region came from conventional sources (coal, gas and hydro), while renewables contributed to less than 10%. Southeast Asia's growth story will continue along this trajectory over the next decade. To fuel power-demand growth, independent power producers have focused on gas-fired power and renewables. Enlit Asia interviews Dr Allen Wang, Director of Gas and Power Energy Futures at IHS Markit for insight. Watch:

The following questions were asked in the interview:

1. The ASEAN region has enjoyed strong power demand growth over the last 10 years. How will this evolve over the next 10 years and are there any markets that are expected to grow faster than others?
2. Certainly, a transformation underway with the Energy Transition and the shift to Renewable Energy. How will the role of thermal generation develop over the next 10 years?
3. What new thermal capacity will come online in the short term, from what sources and how will Renewable Energy impact these projects?
4. What challenges do planned projects in coal face in terms of access to capital, and how is this impacted by the transition to Renewable Energy?
5. Gas has been positioned as the cleanest option in terms of fossil fuels and is often referred to as the bridging fuel as we shift to renewables, is there a time in the short to medium-term where the ASEAN energy mix is one dominated by gas?
6. What is the direction most likely to increase renewables' penetration in Southeast Asia? Has Vietnam got it right?
7. The cost of PV is expected to drop significantly, what about other forms of Renewable Energy? How much will lower costs improve the adoption Renewable Energy, or is it primarily down to other factors?
8. How ambitious is the ASEAN region's national renewable energy targets? Who do you expect to see succeed in reaching them, and what do you feel will be the main contributing factor behind those that miss them by the biggest margins?
9. How is the ongoing situation around the global Coronavirus pandemic impacting regional power demand and what might be the lasting impact, if any?
10. What is IHS's expected ASEAN energy mix by 2030?

IHS Markit experts are available for consultation on the industries and subjects they specialize in. Meetings are virtual and can be tailored to focus on your areas of inquiry. Book a consultation with Allen Wang.

Allen Wang is the Director of Gas and Power Energy Futures at IHS Markit.

Posted 24 April 2020

This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.