Phosphorus is one of the three main macronutrients required in agriculture, along with nitrogen and potassium. Plants absorb phosphorus as phosphate where it is a critical raw material for plant cells, where it plays a role in energy storage and transfer, photosynthesis, respiration and cell division. Over 200 million tonnes of the key raw material, phosphate rock, are produced each year, producing over 150 million tonnes of finished fertilizers for global farmers.Key facts about the phosphate fertilizer market
Phosphates Fertilizer Market and Price Analysis
Key themes affecting the phosphate fertilizer market
The phosphate industry has changed significantly over the last 20 years, with the key driver for change being the availability of commercially viable phosphate resources. Significant investment in China, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Russia has increased production and exports from these countries, such that they now account for 75% of global DAP and MAP exports. China has moved from being a net importer of phosphate to a net exporter, and the United States has moved in the opposite direction. China, Brazil, India and the United States are the four largest consuming markets, accounting for over 60% of phosphate demand. As China and the US remain major production hubs, Brazil and India have emerged as the two key markets for imports, for both phosphate fertilizers and raw materials, and therefore generating vital spot and contract information for the purposes of price setting.
With only but a few players exerting huge influence, the impact of sharp developments in any of these is easily magnified on a global scale. Mainland China’s temporary retreat from export markets from Q4 2021 (which followed a sharp supply shock in Q1 2021 in Hubei province, caused by the early emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic), Russia’s consequent cap on exports, the imposition of countervailing duties in the United States against Russian and Moroccan phosphate fertilizers, or India’s seemingly bottomless support to domestic production all resulted in continued price hikes during 2021.
All the while, the hopes of junior miners and project activity overall are reviving – partly hoping that a need to diversify fertilizer supply will be eventually financed. Emerging demand from sectors such as automotive vehicles (for lithium iron phosphate – LFP – production) could also support further capacity growth.
| Key indicators of phosphate markets | ||||||
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||
| DAP fob US Gulf | $/t | 354 | 416 | 338 | 320 | 652 |
| DAP fob China | $/t | 358 | 412 | 346 | 323 | 598 |
| Total demand as P2O5 | mln t nutrient | 47.0 | 46.8 | 46.6 | 47.1 | 48.1 |
| China DAP exports | mln t product | 8.4 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 10.6 |
| India DAP imports | mln t product | 4.8 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
Solutions
At IHS Markit we offer market-leading phosphates fertilizer information solutions via our globally recognised Fertecon service. Specialists in offering comprehensive data and analysis across the global fertilizer market, with current, short-term and long-term solutions to support all operational needs in your organisation.
Weekly Report
Keep abreast of the phosphates market and spot new opportunities with our weekly market report. Key benefits include reliable price discovery, news on key developments, and trade statistics and news alerts.
More about our methodologyMonthly Futures Report
Plan for the mid-term and make smarter investment decisions with our phosphates market intelligence. Key benefits include global market overview, major company news, and trade statistics alerts.
Quarterly Market Reports
Steer your business in the right strategic direction with in-depth quarterly reports on both the market for phosphates, and the market for it's raw materials, including phosphate rock, phosphoric acid and elemental phosphorus. Both reports include price, supply demand and trade forecasts out 10 years, comprehensive market analysis, and coverage of hot topics.
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